In this article, when I refer to Kyagulanyi’s supporters, I am referring to individuals who align with the National Unity Platform (NUP). Available evidence suggests that since Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, declared himself as a presidential candidate, his message to supporters has largely been promising to “leave Museveni to him.” He has consistently portrayed President Museveni as an elderly man whom he can easily handle, positioning himself as the inevitable next president.
However, closely monitoring political developments in regions like Tooro and Rwenzori, where Kyagulanyi supporters, including parliamentary candidates, are switching to President Museveni’s side, raises serious questions. These occurrences bring about concerns about whether Kyagulanyi’s supporters are gradually losing faith in the face of President Yoweri Museveni’s well-established political strategies.
For example, in Iganga Municipality, where Kyagulanyi’s supporters seem highly enthusiastic and motivated during campaign rallies, some individuals told me, “We just enjoy the vibe and the music.” They also mentioned, “we like Bobi Wine’s music at rallies but we can’t entrust him with our votes.” Such comments suggest that the excitement at rallies may be more driven by entertainment rather than confidence in Kyagulanyi’s potential to win the presidency. Indeed, upon close observation of Kyagulanyi’s campaign rallies, it becomes apparent that many attendees are more captivated by his performer-like persona than by faith in his political triumph. As one person straightforwardly stated, “Kyagulanyi might just be making a movie.”
When I conversed with more independent-minded individuals about why Kyagulanyi’s supporters seem to be defecting more frequently than Museveni’s, one response stood out: “NUP is focused on business, not politics.” This is where my argument commences. If even some of Kyagulanyi’s own supporters are beginning to lose hope in his presidential aspirations, then Museveni’s expertise and political strategies are likely to further diminish Kyagulanyi’s political backing.
Nevertheless , losing hope does not equate to surrender. Many Kyagulanyi supporters remain dedicated but cautious, increasingly recognizing that political change in Uganda may demand patience rather than just emotional mobilization. One online commenter encapsulated this sentiment by expressing, “Kyagulanyi instructs us to seek votes, safeguard the votes, and demand results. But is that our duty? Let Kyagulanyi himself demand the vote results.”
In conclusion, Kyagulanyi’s current political predicament is not comparable to that during the previous presidential elections. Museveni’s strategies seem to have significantly neutralized Bobi Wine’s faction.
Ayub Mukisa, PhD
Executive Director, Karamoja Anti-Corruption Coalition (KACC)
Email: ayubmukisa@gmail.com
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