According to statistics with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of Uganda, 2,127 of the 2,659 direct MP candidates are not sponsored by the ruling National Resistance Movement Party (NRM). This translates to 80%. Majority of these, 1,338 (50.3%) are independents. By implication they can act contrary to the official line of NRM and seriously challenge its candidates in this race. The situation portends an imminent fundamental tilt in the Ugandan political landscape.
It is argued that mysterious as it emerged, Covid-19 came to change things in many ways humanity never anticipated. In its wake, a new political force is consolidating its foothold in Uganda. In the outgoing parliament Independent MPs out number all opposition party representatives combined (66 vs 58). In the incoming parliament, they threaten to outnumber both opposition and the ruling NRM combined.
In the field, Independents are explaining to the electorates a message with a fundamental shift from that of NRM—one of new approaches and priorities in public resource investments. Whereas NRM maintains a need for consolidating infrastructure and energy project investments as key priorities, independents and opposition stress significance of the social-sector cover—in agriculture, education and health as first priorities. They are, therefore, already allied in promoting these alternative ideas. Thus, in a way Independents are filling the gaps that the official opposition is unable to cover in some constituencies—making alternative voices reverberate across the breadth and width of the country.
NRM fortunes are compounded by the inability of party flagbearer Museveni to apply his usual charm and charisma in direct contact with voters as he is ‘religiously’ restricted to a ‘scientific’ campaign mode.
While the NUP candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi is directly guiding voters how and who to vote for regardless of political affiliation, Museveni is relying on the patronage of funds; Ugx300,000 per village to do the work. The total sum of this amount can dwarf the entire budget of the IEC, but it makes a dismal impact to influence voter attitudes.
Hence, aside from the interventions of security forces, the covid-19 campaign restrictions have handed the opposition, inclusive of Independents, a rare opportunity to dominate the larger political space.
Unlike previously, this time round president Museveni is not physically appearing publicly to pin-point at his preferred candidates. What only separates candidates is individual appeal. Secondly whereas opposition forces are used to operating with tight budgets, NRM foot soldiers are less motivated in that aspect—triggering intrigue between themselves to the delight of opponents.
Therefore, as the nation awaits to embrace the new Ugandan political normal, one of its features foretells a historical significant reduction of NRM presence in the next parliament.
Who’ll offer the Speakership?
If Independent MPs go ahead to dominate the 11th parliament, a potential within their reach, it implies they have majorly displaced NRM representatives. As things stand, NRM’s only safe area is from the special interest groups (SIGs)—but even then, 100% only guaranteed from the 10 UPDF representatives, who though, shouldn’t be partisan. The rest of SIG seats for youth, elderly, people with different abilities, workers are equally competitive this time round.
Therefore, in the event of NRM having a reduced representation in the House, its chances of providing the traditional speakership are as good as of FDC represented in the direct MP race by 281 (11%) and NUP with 242 (9%) candidates. Other opposition forces in the race include DP with 120 (4%) candidates, ANT with 116, (4%), UPC with 42, (2%), JEEMA-19, (1%), EPU-5, (0.2%), PPP-3, (0.1%), CP-2, (0.08%), UEP-1 (0.04%), COSEVO-1 (0.04%), SDP-1 (0.04%) and FIL-1 (0.04%).
The unstoppable phenomenon
The Independents phenomenon is unstoppable! It is currently reinforced by the presence of the NRM party chairman’s young brother, Geoffrey Aine Kaguta Sodo and the daughter to foreign affairs minister, Shartis Kutesa in the Mawogola North race. If these two cannot be contained its illogically futile to think of stopping others. Where ‘stopping’ can only deliver sense is in the kind of approach used by finance minister Matia Kasaija with a one Kyalimpa. But with over 2,000 files on table, this method is rendered unsustainable.
Possible Consequences
Historically, NRM candidates have not been easy losers. They go down fighting violently. In their camp, violence is a treasured means to the end; whose effectiveness is measured by the end results. In the wake of the aforesaid threat of Independents, therefore, what should the nation expect a month from now? Incidents, incidents and incidents. Should they cause panic? No! To every ailment, there is a medication. The best medication is mental preparedness for all possible consequences—including winning and losing an election.
The author is an Assistant Lecturer, Islamic University in Uganda (IUIU), Mass Communication Dept
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