The desperation among those forcing their way into power had a couple of weeks ago deteriorated to the extent of banking on the Kenyasque-Bangladeshque Genzi revolution-style as an easy avenue to State House in Uganda. Unfortunately, this proved unworkable as the July 23 planned match to capture parliament, and ultimately state power was expertly thwarted by our intelligent, high-on-alert security system.
Most probably, the architects of the aborted imperialistic machinations are grumbling with an egg on their faces for the humiliating defeat that saw Ugandans keep away from the arrangement that was clearly detrimental to this country and plan B seems certain to be the way.
The 2026 election roadmap is already with us and all camps are interested in the process of tidying their houses to challenge for the top accolade on offer especially now that the failed violence on July 23 to deliver change. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is almost certain to present himself once again to extend his magnificent tenure to a remarkable four decades of colour, glamour and prosperity. Robert Kyagulanyi Seentamu- Museveni’s top challenger in 2021, is equally certain to retain his National Unity Platform( NUP) endorsement having already declared he will give it another try in 2026. Others expected in the queue are Joseph Kabuleta of the National Economic Empowerment Dialogue (NEED) and Nathan Nandala Mafaabi of the Limpy Forum for Democratic Change(FDC). Four-time challenger, Dr Kizza Besigye is rumoured to be still on the fence over an ultimate decision amid public proclamations he is leading an FDC splinter group at Katonga to form a new political party. Whether or not the ex-NRA Bush war physician will be in the fray remains speculative. If not, then either Proscovia Salamu Musumba, Erias Lukwago or Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda could step in should attempts to convince Besigye fail to yield. In a nutshell, as has always been the case at every election season, various forces are gathering their might to possibly give the incumbency it’s most threatening challenge. Under President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, whose defenders have insisted is ageing better like fine wine, NRM is determinedly working around the clock to reinvigorate themselves for a seamless cruise for their monumental chairman- General Museveni.
But how are the various camps preparing for the next big political encounter?
Aware that the looming elections will not only affect the Presidency but also other bearers right up to the local councils, preparations are obviously far-reaching.
Uganda People’s Comgress- UPC is the latest group to kick off nationwide mobilisations with Party leader Jimmy Opeto Akena headlining to drive in Fort portal last week. He joins Forum for Democratic Change- Najjanankumbi whose Secretary General Nathan Nandala Mafaabi has already hinted at challenging for the Presidency should he get cleared by the party. Led by Col Besigye, the FDC splinter group at Katonda Road is embroiled in efforts to form a new political party right in time for the next elections. Kizza Besigye, arguably the most popular man in the group has repeatedly declared that he will not want to challenge President Museveni at an election again having begrudgingly tried and lost on an impressive four occasions. This, thus, leaves a big question of who will be the new group’s torchbearer with just over a year to the ultimate showdown.
Inside the Democratic Party-DP, the relationship between it’s President General, Norbert Mao and President Museveni makes it a tricky bet to call. In July, 2022, Mao was appointed to President Museveni’s cabinet where he serves as Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs. Apparently, there has been no mention by the man from Gulu on his 2026 Presidential ambitions, allowing us the luxury of concluding that he will not be on the Presidential queue.
Under the Asuman Basalirwa-led Justice Forum-JEEMA, a fierce power struggle may not be the best to suggest they are ready to meaningfully take part in the electoral exercise at the national level. Basalirwa, the solitary Member of Parliament on the Mengo based party’s endorsement has fiercely been accused of a lukewarm performance which has stagnated the party for the ten years he has been at the helm. Abudul Noor Kyamumundu, the Party’s Secretary General has castigated his President for failure to lead the party into participating in a presidential election for the two general election cycles while at the wheel. Ultimately, Basalirwa has succumbed to the pressure and agreed to step down, allowing Kyamumundu and company to direct the party on it’s next course. Kyamumundu, who wants to replace Basalirwa has already declared his intention to contest for the Presidency in the upcoming general election.
Gregory Mugisha Muntu Oyera, a former UPDF Commander is expected to give it another try as he will most likely find no objection from within his Alliance for National Transformation ( ANT) party to secure it’s flag. A former ally of both Museveni and Besigye, Muntu, while partying ways with FDC after the highly decisive 2017 internal elections insisted the desire to form strong party structures was the only way to finally defeat the NRM government. Six years down the road, the achievements registered in this particular regard will only be quantified in January 2026.
The National Unity Platform(NUP) arguably the strongest opposition party going by it’s numerical standing in Parliament is greatly backed to headline the offensive against NRM in 2026. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, alias Bobi Wine was Museveni’s closest challenger, poling above 35% of the votes cast as per the official figures released by the Electoral Commission. Central Uganda which is the cradle of his native Baganda ethnicity was his stronghold, securing about 75% of the votes tallied. Busoga was another sub region where he edged President Museveni, and the only place outside Buganda. The anxiety among the public has this been whether Mr Kyagulanyi can consolidate the Buganda vote, built up on his Busoga support and conquer new territories so as to give NRM any headaches. As was expected, NRM, under President Museveni has been tirelessly working to erase NUP’s influence in it’s conquered territories while also ensuring it doesn’t spread any further. As a result, social economic transformation programs have been embarked on to ease the economic pressure on citizens as a way of mortifying them well before the next election. This has been advanced through the Parish Development Model( PDM) which has sent economic empowerment support directly to the beneficiaries at the Parish level. The skilling program initiated by the President through the various presidential skilling centers spread across the country has also greatly enhanced the employability of the youth and capacity to participate in the production process. These, among others have been aimed at endearing the regime to the population who would otherwise chose to go with the opposition.
As 2026 draws nearer, therefore, there is no doubt it will be a nervy political period as the NRM strive to extent it’s reign for another five years while opposition will once again attempt to frustrate Museveni’s efforts to secure a seventh successive term. It’s, therefore, right to suggest that superb organisation and strategic superiority will greatly influence who takes the day come 2026.
The Writer is the Deputy Resident City Commissioner for Nakawa Division
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