The US president, Donald Trump, unrealistically promised to end the war in Ukraine immediately he stepped in the oval, but it seems he has started putting all the pieces together. It seems the big boys – Russia and the USA, are talking, and the topic seems to be mainly about territories (just like during colonialism). Trump stated that he had a “lengthy” phone call with Vladimir Putin, talking about a great variety of subjects — after which he called President Zelenskyy. Trump also announced that a group of his top defence and security professionals will be starting negotiations with the Russians.
Putin facilitated the call, by releasing Marc Fogel — an American citizen, who was taken hostage by Russia in 2021.
Zelensky must be regretting allowing the most powerful nations to test their weapons from his country. It is difficult to say which way Trump’s efforts to end the war will go. Interestingly, when the 47-year-old Ukrainian leader mentioned his dream of a European army, he did not mention American participation in it. Rumours from the press called April 20 the most likely date for a ceasefire, and May 9 the date for lifting martial law and formally ending the war.
Trump called for Russia to be allowed to rejoin the G7. He has already expressed interest in taking control of Greenland, Canada and Gaza. Trump wants a pound of flesh out of Ukraine for past material donations. Putin wants to keep the four regions of Ukraine where 70% of its mineral wealth is concentrated. The French have been kicked out in some of the West African countries, and Russia is buzzing over there.
Ukraine has been told to accept the loss of Crimea as final. The US Defence secretary, Peter Hegseth, has said that Ukraine’s borders cannot go back to 2014, and that Ukraine cannot join NATO. To be fair, NATO is stuck because Russia successfully put some Trojan horses in it – Hungary and Slovakia. It guarantees that Ukraine cannot ever join NATO, because for joining the agreement of all members is needed. Hegseth made it clear that the U.S. will not be sending U.S. Troops to Ukraine.
He also said that Europe will be responsible for its own defence in the future. It feels a bit like in 410 A.D when the Roman emperor, Honorius, informed the Britons that they were on their own and Rome could no longer protect them.
In less than a month, Trump and now Hegseth have undone 80 years of the US being the guarantor of Europe’s defence. I’m surprised that Trump hasn’t offered to buy Ukraine and turn it into a Central European Riviera.
In the past, the US and Central Powers traded the Eastern Bloc like livestock before, just after WW2. It was a decision that has affected Romania for 42 years.
In a way – I know this is a stretch – this might be good if the EU finally gets serious about creating its own defence force. Canada also is learning this lesson: that the US is not a reliable ally and the sooner the democracies of the world recognize it the better. We need to prepare for a world without the US as the world police, as it becomes a completely irrelevant country.
Europe is in a poor state economically at the moment, but it’s still hugely rich and skilled, and it makes a lot of weapons. Artillery shell production in the Czech Republic, for example, is amongst the highest in the world.
Some of the European armed forces are quite good – small, compared with the US, of course, but rather experienced and very well trained, with some serious combat experience among them.
I would prefer for Europe to start taking a more nuanced stance and go its own way: we are Russia’s neighbours, and it would be beneficial for Europe to look for common ground.
Europe should renew exports of cheap Russian resources. There’s no reason why Europe should continue buying Russian oil from the Chinese and Indians expensively anymore, yet we could just negotiate with Russia directly again.
Europe is able to be an intermediary between the US, China and Russia. Instead of blindly following Washington’s orders, it can redraw the geopolitical map and recognize that we live in a multipolar world. You do not achieve peace by demonizing other powers.
RUSSIA
Russia, on the other hand, should be happy with some noises from Washington at the moment. It feels like the old times- the Soviet Union gained more territories than any other country after WW2. They invaded Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan and Chechnya.
For Putin, negotiations with Trump is already a major PR victory. Putin shows his flock that he’s not “isolated” on the world’s stage — the leader of the world’s most important country came to talk to him. Hedgehog has already given away a bargaining chip to Putin- to paraphrase “you (Ukraine) aren’t going back to the way it was”.
Ukraine is widely considered to be the “breadbasket of Europe” due to its large agricultural production, particularly of grains like wheat, barley, and corn.
During WW2, it was a highly sought after prize by Hitler and at one point they were considered to be “liberators” from Soviet rule. 1.5 million Ukrainian Jews died under the Nazi regime before being liberated by the Soviets.
If Putin can finally keep Crimea and what he already controls, then that’s a major victory for him. In any case, he never wanted to control the whole of Ukraine in the first place. I believe all this won’t affect his relationship with China, but If we look at purely geopolitics, then the US needs to target China first and foremost and destroy Russia’s relations with China. China isn’t spending any cent on the Ukraine war, but it has been amongst the top beneficiaries of the war, and that’s smart.
Ukraine is currently costing the USA billions of dollars, and I believe that Trump is completely against spending money for what he calls (unnecessary) for lack of a better word. Up to the end of 2024, the USA contributed more money and material than all other European countries combined. The next four years are likely to reshape the world big time. Every man is now for himself, I think!
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