Explainer: How Urban–Rural Voting Patterns Shaped Uganda’s Presidential Election

Kampala, Uganda — The latest presidential election once again highlighted a defining feature of Uganda’s electoral politics: the sharp divide between urban and rural voting patterns. Official Electoral Commission (EC) results show that while the opposition continued to dominate major towns and cities, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) maintained overwhelming support in rural Uganda, where the majority of registered voters reside.

According to EC data, over 70 per cent of Uganda’s registered voters live in rural districts, compared to less than 30 per cent in urban municipalities and cities. This demographic reality remains a decisive factor in determining national election outcomes.

Urban Vote: Opposition Strongholds Hold

In Kampala City, Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, secured more than 80 per cent of the presidential vote, maintaining the dominance first established in the previous election. Similar trends were recorded in Wakiso, Mukono, Masaka, Mpigi, and parts of Greater Kampala, where the opposition averaged between 60 and 70 per cent.

Urban voting was characterised by:

• Higher youth participation, with EC figures showing that over 65 per cent of urban voters were under 35

• Strong support for opposition parliamentary and mayoral candidates

• Campaign messaging focused on governance, accountability, corruption, and political freedoms

Despite high margins in cities, EC statistics indicate that urban centres contributed less than one-third of total votes cast nationally, limiting the impact of opposition victories in these areas.

Rural Vote: NRM Maintains Dominance

Rural districts delivered Museveni’s largest margins. In western Uganda, EC tallies show the president averaging 75–80 per cent in districts such as Kiruhura, Ntungamo, Bushenyi, and Mbarara. In eastern Uganda, including Busoga and Bukedi, Museveni polled between 65 and 70 per cent.

Northern Uganda also registered improved rural turnout for the ruling party, with Museveni securing over 55 per cent in several districts that had previously shown competitive results.

NRM officials said their strategy prioritised rural mobilisation, voter turnout, and consolidation rather than contesting heavily opposition-leaning urban areas.

Turnout Differences Matter

Turnout levels further widened the urban–rural gap. EC data shows that:

• Rural turnout averaged 70–72 per cent

• Urban turnout averaged 60–62 per cent

This difference translated into hundreds of thousands of additional votes for the ruling party, even in districts where margins were relatively narrow.

In several rural constituencies, turnout increased by 5 to 8 percentage points compared to the previous election, contributing significantly to Museveni’s increased national vote tally.

Role of Government Programs

Post-election voter interviews conducted by EC field officers indicate that government economic programs played a central role in rural voting behaviour. The Parish Development Model (PDM), which has disbursed over UGX 1 trillion nationwide, along with Emyooga and agricultural input programs, were frequently cited by rural voters as influencing their choices.

In contrast, urban voters reported prioritising cost of living, unemployment, governance, and political freedoms — issues that featured prominently in opposition messaging.

Structural Factors

Political analysts note that rural areas benefit from:

• Strong Local Council and NRM party structures

• Easier voter mobilisation through community networks

• Direct linkage between government programs and local leadership

Urban areas, while politically active, face challenges including voter apathy, higher population mobility, and fragmented community structures.

What the Trend Means

The urban–rural voting divide continues to shape Uganda’s elections. While opposition parties maintain strong visibility and influence in cities, electoral outcomes are ultimately decided in rural districts, where voter numbers and turnout remain higher.

With Uganda’s urban population growing steadily, analysts say future elections will depend on whether opposition parties can translate urban dominance into broader rural appeal, or whether the ruling party can maintain its grip on the countryside.

For now, the numbers confirm a familiar pattern: Uganda’s cities protest, but its villages decide.