To understand why many of Bobi Wine’s supporters may be deceiving themselves about the feasibility of the “Kakuume” (guarding the vote) and “Kabanje” (demanding accountability for vote results) project, let me refer to Dr. Kai M. Thaler’s publication titled “The 2021 Elections and Uganda’s Crisis of Continuity.” Thaler begins by stating, “Museveni has held onto control after facing tens of armed insurgencies and attempted uprisings.” He continues with a critical question: “why would Museveni be willing to give up power at the ballot box?” From this background, a fundamental question arises: are Kyagulanyi’s supporters deceiving themselves about the feasibility of the ‘Kakuume’ and ‘Kabanje’ project under Museveni’s regime?
Some Ugandans have long expressed skepticism about the viability of ‘Kabanje’. For instance, one voter remarked in Luganda: “Naye e Dokolo teyafuna bantu, nayo anaakabanja? Oba anaabanja bokisi nkalu?” What this voter meant was that Kyagulanyi failed to gain support in Dokolo district, so what election results would he later demand accountability for—votes that were never cast or empty ballot boxes? This remark reflects a broader doubt about whether ‘Kabanje’ can succeed in areas where Kyagulanyi lacks electoral strength.
In his 2019 article, “Crisis of Consensus and Contentious Politics in Uganda,” Associate Professor Moses Khisa argues that during election periods, the NRM employs a wide range of tactics to secure Museveni’s victory.
It is within this political reality that the ‘Kabanje’ project must be critically examined. A Museveni supporter in Mpigi district put it bluntly in Luganda:
“Kyagulanyi wapikaapika abantu wano mbu mu ‘kalonde, mukakuume era mukabanje,’ ate kati ogamba mbu bagala kuwamba; oyo katemba tetujja mukiriza. Beerawo tukukube akalulu ng’olaba.” What he meant was that Kyagulanyi had mobilized people to vote, guard the vote, and demand accountability for results, yet later claimed he was about to be abducted—something the voter dismissed as political drama.
From field observations, Kyagulanyi’s mobilization lacks disciplined coordination and institutional penetration, unlike Museveni’s long-established political machinery.
Finally, in Masaka district, when I asked whether people were willing to guard the votes, one youth stated in Luganda: “Bobi Wine abadde abasigula, kati obudde buweddeyo.” This meant that Bobi Wine had been misleading people, and now time had run out. My conclusion is with the election scheduled for January 15, ‘Kakuume’ and ‘Kabanje’ believers might understand the reality of what Museveni calls his “historical and popularism mandate.”
Ayub Mukisa, PhD
Executive Director, Karamoja Anti-Corruption Coalition (KACC)
Email: ayubmukisa@gmail.com
Do you have a story in your community or an opinion to share with us: Email us at Submit an Article
