How COVID-19 overshadowed Gen Tumukunde’s political shine; will he still be relevant after the crisis?

In late February and early March 2020, presidential hopeful Lt Gen (Rtd) Henry Tumukunde was the talk of town for two reasons: his declaration of interest in the country’s top seat and his arrest over treason and unlawful possession of firearms.

Since his sacking as Security Minister, alongside his rival former Police Chief Gen Kale Kayihura, Tumukunde had slipped into oblivion, save for his expression of interest in the Kampala Lord Mayoral Position sometime in July 2019. His consultations for this seat did not attract much media attention, and the former Internal Security Organisation (ISO) boss was soon forgotten.

But news that his guards were withdrawn in late February sparked speculation. That too could have been forgotten but Tumukunde’s announcement that he had written to the Electoral Commission (EC) requesting to start consulting ahead of the 2021 presidential election brought him into the limelight again. Tumukunde said he would run for President to “support the fundamental change which we promised Ugandans in the past and a peaceful transition from one generation to another.” For days, his candidature was the subject of many political talk shows and commentary in print, online and social media.

While Ugandans were still discussing Tumukunde, his connection with Museveni and the First Family, his comparison with former Prime Minister and Former presidential aspirant John Patrick Amama Mbabazi and his chances of eclipsing opposition leader Dr Kizza Besigye and political novice Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine as President Yoweri Museveni’s key opponent, something new happened: his arrest.

First put under home arrest in his Kololo, then treated for illness, Tumukunde was later charged and remanded over treason and unlawful possession of firearms. The treason charge emanated from his comments on a morning show at NBS TV in early March during which he said: “If I was Rwanda, I would wish to support people who want to cause change in Uganda.”

While Tumukunde’s declaration of entry into the presidential race was timely, coming only 12 months to the election, Covid19 soon stole public attention, throwing a dark shadow onto the general. On the day Tumukunde was produced in court, charged and remanded, President Museveni announced closure of education institutions and banned public gatherings to prevent the spread of Coronavirus. And from that 18th day of March, Covid19 has dominated the headlines, including the day Tumukunde reappeared in court via video conferencing.

When he last appeared in High Court in Kampala via a video link two weeks ago, Tumukunde was further remanded by Justice Wilson Kwesiga until next month. Kwesiga denied the General bail because he didn’t have substantial sureties. Tumukunde had brought Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) Vice Chairperson for Eastern Uganda Salaamu Musumba, Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Coordinator Gen Mugisha Muntu, his wife Stella Tumukunde and his brother Hannington Karuhanga. But the judge told him to bring two more military officers at his rank or even at a higher rank with a letter of introduction from the Chief of Defense Forces (CDF).

With Ugandans now occupied with the Covid19 scare, the impact of the lockdown biting, and President Museveni appearing to be in charge after putting restrictions on what his opponents can do (including banning them from distributing relief food items), Tumukunde will need a miracle to get many Ugandans’ attention before the pandemic has been defeated and the lockdown lifted. For now, Ugandans seemed to be preoccupied with the possibility of another lockdown extension after the current three-week one ends on May 05, a day before he returns to court.

Until the situation has normalised, Tumukunde might find it difficult to catch the attention of Ugandans. Already, opposition members like Besigye and Bobi Wine are struggling for relevance even when they are not in prison like him because the focus is on Museveni who has so far made over 10 Coronavirus presidential addresses, the Ministry of Health, and some scandals surrounding relief food distribution and the sharing of a supplementary budget.

To be relevant again, Tumukunde might have to wait until the end of Covid19. After that, his trial and its result might return him to national attention. But even then, the question is what that outcome means for his presidential ambition which his former boss Yoweri Museveni is preparing to win by all means.