By Wilfred Arinda Nshekantebirwe
Kisoro District isn’t just another voting area in Uganda—it’s the lifeblood of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Known for its special support, Kisoro has consistently delivered some of the NRM’s biggest victories, even surpassing results from President Museveni’s own home district, Kiruhura. This loyalty gave rise to the term “Ijana Kwijana” (100% by 100%), symbolizing Kisoro’s legendary voting pattern in favor of the NRM.
The upcoming by-election here is far more than a local affair. It’s a critical moment for the NRM, carrying national implications. A win would reaffirm the NRM’s strength and relevance across Uganda. But a loss would send shockwaves through the party, signaling that even its most loyal base may be slipping. It’s a high-stakes moment, akin to the recent decline faced by Botswana’s Democratic Party after nearly six decades in power.
If the NRM loses this by-election, it could spell a symbolic, even existential, threat to the party’s identity. Kisoro’s defection would suggest that if “Ijana Kwijana” can turn its back on the NRM, perhaps the rest of Uganda should too. A loss would invite intense scrutiny, with opponents seizing on the result as evidence that the NRM’s influence is fading, even in its most steadfast districts.
Botswana’s Democratic Party (BDP) recently found itself on the back foot, relinquishing its once uncontested dominance, nearly decades later. Similarly, Mozambique’s FRELIMO is beginning to struggle, facing fierce criticism and slipping in popularity. Both parties are giants in Africa’s political landscape, among the oldest and once most unshakeable political forces on the continent. Yet, even these behemoths are discovering that long-held power is no guarantee against a slide from public favor.
When ruling parties start losing their grip, it often begins in familiar, long-loyal strongholds. Whether to independents or opposition-backed candidates, each loss sends a message. A loss, in any form, chips away at the narrative of invincibility—especially when it takes place in regions once regarded as “Ijana Kwijana”.
In this context, the Kisoro District by-election for the Woman Member of Parliament holds a far greater significance than simply filling a seat. For the NRM party, it’s more than a test of political strength. Kisoro is a stronghold, and if the NRM stumbles here, it will send a message across the country—a message that the once-stalwart party is fading away.
For NRM leaders, a victory in Kisoro isn’t just desirable; it’s a non-negotiable must. The eyes of Uganda are upon Kisoro, and the implications of this by-election extend far beyond its borders. Will the NRM reclaim its rightful place as the unassailable force in Ugandan politics, or will it face the harsh reality of a shifting political landscape? The answer lies in the hands of the voters of Kisoro, but one thing is clear: this is a battle that the NRM cannot afford to lose. If NRM isn’t in Kisoro district, then it isn’t anywhere in Uganda.
The writer is the LC 5 Male youth councillor for Rubanda District.
wilfredarinda@gmail.com.
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