The Baganda have a saying about a headstrong man who defied conventional wisdom and constructed a boat of clay to embark on a voyage. The plea of more experienced sailors fell on deaf ears and the foolish man drowned. The Luos have a similar saying but with a different scenario. A man called Ojuk embarking on a betrothal journey at his mother-in-law’s house had stepped on feces midway the trip. His friends admonished him to branch to the nearest stream to have a bath. Ojuk could have none of this. Ojuk reasoned that they needed to reach on the appointed time and not dilly-dally on bathing thus losing precious time. Unfortunately for him, among the Luos, the mother-in-law’s house is the most sacred place for a potential son in law. Ojuk and his entourage were thrown out for bringing feces inside the house of mother in law.
The NRM up and down tickets from the recently concluded primaries presents the most prepared and formidable crop of candidates in a general election. Despite the “scattered showers” of disorder in a few places, in the rest of the country, the NRM candidates are solid candidates with high chances of success in the 2021 elections. The fact that the ticket was very competitive shows the strength, rather than the weakness, of the party.
When you contrast the NRM to the weak, disorganized, and inept opposition, the NRM is a well-oiled machine. Let us conduct a whirlwind survey among the pretenders that are the collective opposition to show you that NRM will win by a landslide.
Uganda oldest political party, the Democratic Party, suffered a deadly schism when almost 90 percent of its Buganda members of parliament left the party and joined the National Unity Platform, the novice political party that Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, the musician turned politician, purchased from one Kibalama, a former bodyguard of Paulo Muwanga. Bereft of his Buganda core, Nobert Mao retreated to Gulu, where he held a poorly attended and a hurriedly organized Delegates Conference. Mao, like Napoleon, self-anointed himself DP President general and DP sole candidate. Chairman Mao has a way with words, but just like Cinna the Poet from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, he will be politically torn apart for his bad verses.
Meanwhile, The Grand Old Party of Uganda, the Uganda People’s Congress is a pale comparison to its proud slogan of “everywhere UPC!”. The party has retreated to the Lango enclave, where its first leader hailed from. Torn apart from a vicious fight between two factions, UPC seems to have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing from its former mistakes. Smelling blood, NRM has potential to wrest control of the region in 2021.
The largest opposition political party by numerical strength in parliament, the Forum of Democratic Change, is looking like a freshly castrated bull and is neither a danger nor a threat to the NRM hegemony. The party suffered irreparable damage when Kizza Besigye, the four times Presidential elections loser, hounded out the reformist and moderate wing of the party led by Gen Mugisha Muntu. Whereas Muntu favored a less abrasive brand of politics, Besigye, frothing at the mouth, branded Muntu a mole and forced the General to break away from FDC with his faithful members to form the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT). As we speak, FDC is a spent force, made hollow by mass defection of its most senior members.
The National Unity Platform (NUP) that we earlier spoke of is an obvious reincarnation of Kabaka Yekka. Robert Kyagulanyi is attempting to conduct political alchemy — turning base metals into gold. Refusing to learn the lessons from the botched fiasco of “Take your government out of Buganda” of 1966, NUP is aspiring to repeat the impossible. We can only conclude that they’re a passing cloud in the sky.
That leaves us with the curious case of General Mugisha Muntu, who is highly respected across the political spectrum. People still remember how, during the height of walk to work protests, Gen Muntu was saluted at every turn by soldiers and policemen while Besigye being bundled on the back of pick-up trucks like a sack of potatoes. Muntu generally inspires respect and admiration from his good conduct and demeanor. However, he seems to have been cursed by the Greek gods that condemned him to universal admiration and respect without getting the attendant power.
But if Muntu is a man willing to break eggs to make an omelettes, he represents the best chance of transition within the NRM. President Museveni is a statesman who loves to work with people formerly opposed to him.
But as of now, if you’re a betting man, put your money in the NRM.
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