President Yoweri Museveni was on May, 12th 2026 sworn in for a seventh term, extending his 40-year tenure following what was termed as a landslide victory in the January 15th, 2026 elections. If there are no mind games at play and if all factors remain constant, Museveni will have made 46 years in office by 2031 having seized power in 1986.
Museveni is competing favorably with Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea who has been in power since 1979. He is closely followed by Cameroon’s Paul Biya who has so far ruled for 43years and Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo whose 40-years record in power is unprecedented.
When asked by Sky News following the botched 2026 election on whether he will contest in 2031, Museveni said leadership should be guided by capacity and commitment rather than age alone, stressing that the country still faces complex challenges that require experienced hands. This means that Museveni sees himself as the only capable leader in Uganda.
At 86years by 2031, Museveni will officially enter the books of history as a President who learnt nothing from historical mistakes that he once condemned. No wonder the occasion was attended by a handful of African heads of state but with the usual guest like Kenya’s Willian Ruto and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame conspicuously missing.
During the inauguration at the Kololo Independence Grounds, Museveni pledged “no more sleep” in his new term, focusing on wealth creation and infrastructure development amidst applause from thousands of his supporters ferried from across the country. As the new 5year term begins, several dynamics are unfolding with naysayers predicting another wasted five years, doom for the future of democracy and the rule of law.
Besides being a lucky man ruling over a gullible populace, Museveni has led Ugandans using reverse psychology, using the opposition against each other, using manipulation, causing the enactment of laws that favour him, silencing dissent, using tax payer’s money the way he wishes, amending the constitution to entrench himself in power and above all, making slogans and promises many of which he never fulfills.
The former rebel leader once said Africa’s problem was leaders who overstayed their welcome but he has lived to swallow his own words. It remains unclear who will eventually replace Museveni but his son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba appears to have been aligned to take over when the father resigns, or dies in office. Others speculate that one of Museveni’s daughters could be a possible heir and will rise through the vice presidency.
To understand some of these dynamics, Ugandans should look out for the upcoming “protecting the gains” Cabinet and Ministers of State. Whoever will be appointed Vice President will be Uganda’s President in waiting. Article 109 of the 1995 Constitution outlines procedures for succession and temporary authority in case of resignation, removal or death.
It states that if the President dies, resigns, or is removed, the Vice President assumes office, with elections held within six months, unless the term is ending within one year. At his current age with fears that nature could strike, Museveni will strategically appoint a vice President aware of these provisions of the Constitution.
If the Vice President assumes the presidency, he/she has to appoint a new Vice President with parliamentary approval. This law ensures a smooth transition of power and maintains the continuity of government during unforeseen vacancies. If both the President and Vice President are incapacitated, the Speaker of Parliament takes over under the same terms. This is why the position of Speaker is equally important to the ruling government.
I hope that hint allays the fears of those worry that Museveni might die in office. With this puzzle now solved, the next question is how many of Museveni current Ministers will be retained. Unfortunately, the majority will be dropped and replaced with those aligned to the Patriotic League and I believe Museveni will have limited input in their appointment.
I also hate to say this but it goes without saying that there are limited chances that the current Vice President Jesca Alupo, Prime Minister Robinah Nabanja, the three Deputy Prime Ministers Rebecca Kadagaf, Gen. Moses Ali, and Lukia Isanga Nakadama will bounce back. If any of them has a private agreement with Museveni, it will serve no meaningful moving forward with chances that the NRM outfit could be phased out sooner.
For some of us who have been monitoring current affairs can attest to the fact that 82 cabinet and state Ministers are not unnecessary. The unfortunate part in dropping Ministers is that Museveni has been in the habit of baptizing them Presidential advisers with no work to do. We can only hope against hope that this practice can end with this term.
With the Karamoja iron sheet scandal still fresh in the minds of Ugandans, “Kisanja no more sleep” should be used by Museveni to clean his dirty linen of shielding the corrupt ministers even when they apologized. Unfortunately, the new cabinet will not add value to Uganda but may again pick on the very vices left behind by their predecessors in title.
I also want to touch on a very sensitive subject of the speakership. Many have said the party still has faith Among and Tayebwa but I beg to differ. For starters, there is no way the Patriotic League of Uganda will accommodate both the current Speaker and her deputy, one on both must be sacrificed with the balance of convenience lying in favour of Thomas Tayebwa being elevated to substantive speaker.
If this happens, then there will be a surprise female Deputy Speaker. The other contenders with a chance of becoming substantive speaker and deputized by Tayebwa are Mao and Jacob Oboth who appear to be in the good books of the first son. Given their seniority, these two, Mao and Both cannot settle for less, at the worst they will remain cabinet ministers.
The saddest bit is that we are going to have the worst, perhaps the most dormant opposition ever in the history of Uganda. We all know that the Forum of Democratic Change, the Democratic Party and the Uganda People’s Congress have secret dealings with the ruling party with the exception of the newly formed People’s Front for Freedom.
Many of these have inbuilt hatred for the National Unity Platform. Can they unite for any cause, my answer is no. With an impending election of oversight committee leaders and the leaders of opposition, the opposing side will never be the same again. Many will actually be thrown out through impending elections petitions with the instigation of government.
Uganda’s hope in the opposition only lies with Joel Senyonyi, John Baptist Nambeshe, Betty Namboze, Musanje Moses Lukanga, Zake Butebi, Sewungu, Kiwanuka Abdallah, Elias Nalukoola, Paul Mwiru, Andrew Kiiza Kaluya and a few others whose names I may have left out. We can only pray that some of these don’t become moles within.
Wadada Rogers is a commentator on political, legal and social issues. wadroger@yahoo.ca
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