The political formation promoted by Former Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) president and four time presidential candidate, Dr. Kizza Besigye, NUP President, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, ANT’s Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, among others, is another walk in the park. It’s an attempt to reinvent previous failed attempts to unsettle President Yoweri Museveni whose staying power has forced his opponents to invent ways to hoodwink their supporters that they have something new to offer.
There have been “daily” attempts to edge out President Museveni since day one when he took power but all have come to naught. In the present, given his experience, seniority, mass appeal, regional relevance and the state of the modern and professionalised security apparatus in Uganda, it’s much less easier for his opponents to overwhelm him.
Even then, nobody can take power in Uganda without going through elections. Any other method is unconstitutional, if not unpopular, and unacceptable to Ugandans.
Dr. Besigye’s effort has always carried a load of innuendo intended to send shivers down the system but the truth is if he really had the capacity to follow through with his agenda, that opportunity has overtime eluded him to a point in time when he gave up when he only remains to keep up the hopes of his supporters. Dr. Besigye ceded his place in 2021 when the emergence of Bobi Wine, rather than shake the NRM Government, rattled his support base and shifted it to Kamwokya. As a result, his supporters are the ones that voted Bobi Wine.
To prove this theory, look back and remember the war of words that broke out between FDC supporters and those of Bobi Wine. They exchanged bitterly on social media and even confronted each other in the field to an extent that the FDC principal cried with frustration as the apparent ingratitude of his followers. He was at one point accused of being a stooge who is only in place to divert “true” opposition. At some point, supporters of President Museveni stood and aside and enjoyed the film as it unfolded. The end result was a grand victory for TeamYKMT!
Going forward, Bobi Wine and Besigye will keep sharing the same supporters and if both contest, they will each have a fraction of them. If only one goes in, their two fractions will add up to the same whole figure which each has been garnering, independent of the other.
What happened in 2021 was akin to what happened in 2001 when Besigye “inherited” the supporters of Dr. Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, who had himself exploited the supporters of Dr. Obote/UPC in 1996. Through 2006, 2011 and 2016, Besigye maintained the same following until 2021 when Bobi Wine stepped in his shoes. The Dr from Rwakabengo could have acted like his benefactor, PK Ssemogerere, and left the scene for the newcomer, but there are indicators that he may give the Presidency another shot, and as I have already worked it out, it means that the “United Forces of Change” concept is on shaky ground.
At every election cycle, there has always been a form of alliance or collective effort by the opposition, starting from the Inter-Party Forces for Cooperation (IPFC) in 1996-UPC and DP, Reform Agenda in 2001-comprised of PAFO, CP, DP and UPC; the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) just before 2011, attempts at a common platform in 2016 as well as in 2021. Nothing hasn’t been attempted in a bid to wrest power from President Museveni, all to no avail.
In 2021, Besigye also came up with the PTF-People’s Front for Transition, Red Card initiative, not forgetting “Plan B” and “Tsunami”, to differently named but similar pressure groups- “A4C”, “4GC”, tubalemese, twerwaneko, People’s Government, etc, which again didn’t amount to much. Dr. Besigye’s attempt to form an alternative “Movement” is commendable but reinventing the original one will never materialise.
With the sharp split in FDC-now with two camps in Najjanankumbi and Katonga, Besigye’s alliance with Bobi Wine, and Maj. Gen. Muntu, is more like old wine in new bottles. The packaging may be different but there is nothing new in terms of momentum generated. If the aim is always to deny President Museveni 51% to carry the elections, whether there is a joint opposition candidate or each part fronts its own, the result is the same.
Outside elections, moves to force Government out of power are in this era are not very tenable because the current Government is all-accommodating, with a Parliament composed of members from all major parties and other opposition party ticketholders serving in local administrative units as Mayors, Chairpersons and Councilors. They earn well and aren’t willing to disrupt the status quo because they all know that it’s President Museveni responsible for their opportunity through his broadbased outlook to governance.
As far as the youth bloc is concerned, a lot is happening which will galvanise that decisive constituency on the right side of politics and leadership. This is where I appeal to the youths to avoid being used, and to concentrate on seeking education and skills, and those who are skilled to create jobs for themselves by utilizing Government’s empowerment programmes to earn a livelihood. Time for high politics will come at its appointed time!
There is also a game plan to try and draw attention away from the important summits-NAM and G77-which Uganda is hosting-following quickly after the 27th Conference of Speakers and Presiding Officers of the Commonwealth (CSPOC), or to disrupt them but these events have already sealed Uganda’s profile on the international map. President Museveni has the full trust of the world, regardless of the mudslinging and bad publicity engineered against him.
Whatever the name of a formation or coalition or platform or union or pressure group anyone can coin, as long as it doesn’t command a critical mass following and goodwill of the people, it will only end up as a “kayoola” group for political survivors. Ugandans know what the kind of change they want and when!
The author is the Deputy Presidential Press Secretary
Contact: kirundaf2@gmail.com
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