WADADA ROGERS: What if the army is covertly looking for Bobi Wine to give him the Presidency?

I have written this piece aware of the social media backlash it will cause but I am fully prepared for the rebuttal. That is the path I chose; to look at things beyond their face value. I implore my readers to remain open minded and to understand where I am coming from and where I am going, I am not Besigye’s infamous “Kikonyogo Kanoonya”.

I am deliberately using the word covertly to mean doing something in a secret, hidden, or surreptitious manner, often to avoid detection or notice. The word refers to actions performed undercover or on the sly, often with a hint of underhandedness or quiet, stealthy, private activity often to paint a different picture from the reality.

We are dealing with a situation that pauses more questions than answers. Many have been doubting Bobi Wine’s loyalty to the opposition but some remained form in his defense. Even his work method raised eye brows including his decision to hide after the January, 15th 2026 Presidential elections leave alone sneaking his family to America.

Kyagulanyi’s “people power” slogan differed from the methods of older opposition figures, leading to questions about whether he was acting in the collective interest of the opposition or covertly for a discreet third party. While many view him as a threat to the Museveni regime, these factors contribute to skepticism about his long-term loyalty to the broader opposition, others think he could be the proverbial Judas Escariot.

Recall that Bobi Wine rose to political prominence from nowhere, a situation that created suspicion among established opposition parties. They viewed his rise as disruptive to their strategies. His background as a musician leading to a sudden shift into high-level politics caused some to question the sustainability and depth of his political commitment.

Then came the choice of leaders to steer the National Unity Platform. Besides the deputy Presidents who are chosen based on the regions they come from, Kyagulanyi chose Lewis Rubongoya as Secretary General, Benjamin Katana as Treasurer and Joel Senyonyi as Spokesperson. These three appear untouchable and remained at the helm yet no one is asking how and why, are they so loyal or they own the party?

For those who followed the recent campaign, you may have noticed something unusual. Bobi Wine was so relaxed and did not encounter extreme frustrations which the like of Besigye was subjected to. He was so content akin a man on a mission. Could he be Museveni’s weapon to diffuse the opposition as earlier threatened and to divert foreign forces?

A similar game was played in the 2018 D.R Congo presidential election. In that election, a last-minute “swap” or, more accurately, a secret power-sharing deal, was engineered by former President Joseph Kabila to replace his unpopular chosen successor Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary with a seemingly legitimate opposition candidate Félix Tshisekedi.

This maneuver was designed to confuse the international community, neutralize the real opposition, and ensure that Kabila maintained influence behind the scenes after 18 years in power. The strategy involved a multi-stage process that unfolded between November 2018 and January 2019, it worked as planned and executed in a clandestine manner.

Kabila originally designated Shadary, his former Interior Minister, as the candidate for the ruling coalition. However, opinion polls indicated Shadary would lose badly, and he lacked popular support. For many who live in Uganda, I am sure you know that we have a similar character in the succession queue without any charisma.

The main opposition was split, and in November 2018, Geneva-based talks briefly produced a joint candidate, Martin Fayulu, whom major opposition leaders including Bemba and Katumbi backed. However, recognizing that Shadary was losing and Fayulu was gaining momentum, the Kabila regime pivoted signifying a rapid change in direction and strategy.

When initial results on voting day on December 30, 2018 showed Shadary far behind, the regime reportedly approached Félix Tshisekedi, another opposition candidate whose base was in the Kasai region. Instead of declaring the true winner widely believed to be Fayulu, the electoral commission announced Tshisekedi as the winner, with Shadary in third position.

The swap was highly effective in creating ambiguity for foreign powers, who were caught between supporting a democratic outcome and avoiding a violent civil conflict. Because Tshisekedi was technically an opposition leader, his “victory” allowed the international community to accept a “transfer of power” from the ruling party to the opposition, even though it was not the opposition that actually won the vote.

The Kabila regime presented the deal as a way to avoid the violent backlash feared if they forced a Shadary victory. While the Catholic Church and independent observers noted the results did not match their tallies which showed Fayulu winning, the international community led by regional bodies like SADC and eventually African Union members largely accepted the result to avoid further instability in the D.R Congo.

The Court fast-tracked the validation of the rigged results, shutting down appeals for a recount, which legally sealed the “switch”. The deal allowed Kabila to step down from the presidency but maintain control through his FCC coalition, which had won a massive majority in the parliament, and by backing the new President. Félix Tshisekedi became president but faced immediate accusations of having orchestrated an “electoral coup”.

Martin Fayulu contested the results, leading to a lingering legitimacy crisis. Bringing this comparison into context, you may want to recall that after the January, 15th 2026 general elections, Kyagulanyi ruled out seeking court redress. Instead, one of the Presidential candidates Robert Kasibante of the National Peasants Party petitioned the Supreme Court. Kasibante was 6th in that race having garnered only 33440 votes.

Kasibante later withdrew his petition effectively sanitizing Museveni’s “victory. That means that Museveni will; if all factors remain constant rule Uganda until 2031. However, all signs seem to suggest that he may not hold onto power for his entire mandate of five years. He may be planning for a smooth exit but needs a more acceptable person to take on the mantle from where he intends to stop, perhaps after swearing in.

We are told Kyagulanyi is still in his hideout within the borders of Uganda. Earlier, we were entertained to videos of Bobi Wine traversing different places undetected and yet he is on the most wanted list of the army boss. Were these videos made after the elections or were pre- meditated for that purpose before the country went to the January 15th polls. If recorded earlier, could this mean that Kyagulanyi knew he would lose the election?

I am not so sure if I should believe the narrative that security has failed to locate him yet he regularly communicates with his family, the international community and foreign media houses. Matters are made worse that he has not communicated his next move yet he is supposed to be commandeering the “Kabanje slogan”- demand-for the stolen vote.

With security maintaining daily presence at his home, it is hard to tell whether they are guarding his house or Robert Kyagulanyi the standby generator with the full knowledge of government. With an influx of foreign journalists who have severally visited to interview Bobi Wine, I am starting to believe somebody somewhere is working with another to fool all of us.

Wadada Rogers is a commentator on political, legal and social issues. wadroger@yahoo.ca