The end of 2024 will not only pave way for a new year in Uganda but also a politically decisive one. As early as 3rd, January, 2025, an action packed electoral activities will commence, heralding an array of activities that will climax into the election of new leaders for the next five years. But even before then, clouds have been swirling in the skies indicating that there will be political rains soon. Obviously, the National Resistance Movement- with its stability, have a candidate certain to hold their flag in Party Chairman, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, alias Bobi Wine, will almost certainly carry the flag for National Unity Platform, the party he formed in july 2020. Incarcerated Col(Rtd) Kizza Besigye Kifefe is also strongly rumored to be in queue to battle for the very seat he had previously attempted to take on four unsuccessful occasions. Besigye is much favored by odds to have the endorsement of his new formation – People’s Front for Freedom( PFF) ahead of Ssalong Erias Lukwago, Ssemujju Nganda and Proscovia Salaamu Musumba. In the Forum for Democratic Change(FDC), Najjanankumbi, it appears like Secretary General Nathan Nandala Mafaabi will be the chosen one after Party President Patrick Amuriat Oboi agreed to give way following a dismal performance in 2021.
Mathias Nsamba Mpuuga , a former Bobi Wine ally and NUP member has of recent, become the latest person to be joined into this ever increasing list following the unveiling of a political formation- Democratic Alliance. It is largely anticipated that should the new formation decide to front a candidate for the Peesidency next year, Mpuuga will be its unrivaled pole bearer.
How its expected to turn out
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of the NRM is almost certain to clinch a seventh successive term when the justice Byabakama EC finally announces the poll results in January 2026. A number of factors are likely to swing the scale in Museveni’s favor, salient among them being the divisions within the opposition, the success if the numerous anti poverty measures such as, PDM, Emyoga, YLP, GROW, SAGE WEOP, security, among others. These, together have enhanced the appeal of the NRM government among the masses which will surely reflect in the final poll tally in 2026. Additionally, a multi faceted mobilization strategy embraced by NRM will contribute to the outcome of the polls in 2026. As soon as President Museveni was sworn in in 2021, the party embarked on diagnosing the shortfalls that led to poor performance is specific areas, such as Busoga and Buganda. In February 2022, Peesident Museveni invited local council and party leaders for the Kampala Metropolitan area to discuss the causes and find solutions to what might have affected the party. Through various structures like the ONC, NRM Secretariat, Pressure groups, these engagements have been consistently going on.
The Death of NUP Dominance in Buganda
DA, predominantly composed of former members of the Democratic Party, which group, coincidentally forms a significant part of the NUP composition, will openly challenge Kyagulanyi whose political approach they contest. Needless to say, DA’s impact will be edged on Buganda Kingdom whose loyalty is behind the curtains seen to favor its promoters. Kimanya Kabonera MP, Abeid Bwanika, one of the top promoters of the group, and also a member of the NUP has over and over castigated his party for undermining Buganda and has backed the people to side with their king when it comes to 2026.
In Busoga, there wasn’t a major problem as our friends in opposition have seemed to want us believe. The fact that Busoga sidelined opposition at the different levels of leadership and only slightly voted Bobi Wine is an indication that there were mishaps in mobilization and organization. As for 2026, I can only remind you that super mobilization strategist, Hajji Kirunda Farouk is in charge. Lest you forget, he also hails from Busoga.
The Return of Col Besigye
Not that he is strong enough to upset NRM, but he is tried and tested enough to cause NUP and Bobi Wine problems. Betty Nambooze, the Mukono Municipality MP of the NUP was the first to analyze Besigye’s possible quake in the opposition politics by claiming tha he comes with a group of capable leaders more in number than there are in NUP. This way, she implies that the former NRA combatant is capable of causing a tsunami that will most probably sweep NUP aside. Besigye, the master of both the politics of defiance, diversion and provocation is currently in Luzira prison while aware that his political fortune survived for two decades on invoking sympathy by provoking the government to arrest and detain him. Currently battling treason charges in the court marshal, Besigye surprised everybody when he chose against applying for bail, rather opting for christmas in prison. For those who think the four time Presidential candidate is a fool, prepare for the biggest shock of your lives. Besigye’s target is not President Museveni. It’s Bobi Wine.
Till we meet again next year, happy new year.
The writer is the Deputy Resident City Commissioner for Nakawa Division.
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