KAMPALA — Uganda’s political establishment remains gripped by uncertainty as the battle for Speaker of the 12th Parliament grows increasingly tense, with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni continuing to keep the country guessing on who he will ultimately back for the powerful position.
At the center of the unfolding drama is the widespread belief within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) that whoever secures Museveni’s blessing will almost certainly carry the day when Parliament elects its leadership.
Yet, despite weeks of lobbying, speculation, and intense political maneuvering, the President has not publicly revealed his preferred candidate — a silence that has transformed the Speakership race into one of the most suspenseful political contests in recent years.
Initially, many within government circles believed incumbent Speaker Anita Among and Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa were firmly positioned for re-election following reports that Museveni favored continuity in Parliament’s leadership.
However, recent developments have dramatically altered the political mood.
Growing reports from political insiders now suggest that senior minister Jacob Oboth-Oboth is increasingly being discussed within influential power circles as a possible compromise candidate capable of stabilizing Parliament amid mounting public criticism directed at the institution.
The speculation has only intensified following a series of unusual political signals involving Speaker Anita Among herself.
In recent days, reports have circulated within political and security circles claiming that Among’s security deployment may have been scaled down. Observers also noted that the Speaker recently arrived at Parliament with a visibly smaller entourage than usual, accompanied mainly by her husband, Budiope East MP Moses Magogo.
While there has been no official communication regarding any changes to her security arrangements, the developments have triggered widespread debate within political circles, with some interpreting them as possible signs of shifting dynamics within the establishment.
Others, however, caution against reading too much into the situation, arguing that security deployments for senior officials can fluctuate for operational reasons.
Still, in Uganda’s highly observant political environment, even the smallest gestures are often scrutinized for deeper meaning.
At the same time, Democratic Party President General Norbert Mao — who had positioned himself as a vocal challenger in the Speakership race — has noticeably toned down his political rhetoric in recent days.
Mao had previously maintained an active public campaign, presenting himself as a reform-minded alternative capable of restoring institutional credibility to Parliament. But his recent relative silence has sparked speculation that behind-the-scenes negotiations or realignments could be underway.
Political analysts say the changing tone among major contenders reflects growing awareness that the decisive factor may not necessarily be public campaigning, but rather Museveni’s final position.
“The President is still holding the cards very closely,” a senior NRM mobilizer told Watchdog Uganda. “Everybody understands that once Museveni openly backs a candidate, many MPs will automatically align accordingly.”
Within the NRM caucus, Museveni’s influence remains immense, particularly during internal leadership contests where party discipline and political survival often shape voting patterns.
The uncertainty surrounding the President’s preferred candidate has therefore created an atmosphere of caution among contenders and their supporters, many of whom are now avoiding aggressive public confrontations while waiting for clearer signals from State House.
Meanwhile, the Patriotic League of Uganda’s withdrawal of support for Among and Tayebwa continues to cast a long shadow over the race, especially after growing criticism over alleged extravagance and corruption linked to Parliament leadership.
Oboth-Oboth’s name has increasingly resurfaced in these discussions due to his reputation as an experienced legislator with relatively less political baggage compared to some of the other contenders.
As lobbying intensifies quietly through caucus meetings, private consultations, WhatsApp groups, and elite political networks, Uganda’s Speakership race has evolved into far more than a parliamentary election.
For many observers, it is now viewed as an important test of influence, succession politics, and the future balance of power within the ruling establishment ahead of Uganda’s next political phase.
Until Museveni eventually reveals his hand, the country is likely to remain on edge — watching every movement, every silence, and every political signal coming from the corridors of power.
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