Muhoozi or Bobi Wine: Who could be Uganda’s President after Museveni?

With Dr Kizza Besigye expected to be 70 years in 2026, foretelling the probable replacements for Uganda’s presidency after Museveni wouldn’t have been as hard as it is now had it not been for the rise of ‘new boy on the block ” Bobi Wine to political prominence.

Following the shocking revelations about “the muhoozi Project” by former spy master General David Sejusa in which he exposed a plot by President Yoweri Museveni to catapult his son Lt Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba to the country’s presidency while gagging members of the military from saying anything, the first son’s name gradually emerged among the most thought after choices for the man or woman to steer the country after his incumbent father General Museveni.

For Col Besigye who is in the mix now, along with 35 year long leader Museveni will be out of the following analysis on an assumption that beyond 2021, the country will be yearning to have some fresh blood which will make the dual less competitive, forcing all the camps to attempt choosing from some youthful blood from within their ranks to boost their chances at the top most seat of the land.

Whereas Muhoozi remains the most probable candidate from his Father’s NRM party and Robert Kyagulanyi certainly the choice from People power, the one to take the mantle from four time presidential challenger Besigye is still debatable, with Budadiri West MP Nathan Mandala Mafaabi, the most viable option slated to be in his sixties around the same time. Therefore we try to analyse the chances for the two available choices for 2026 when many project will be the time when President Museveni will most likely announce his long anticipated retirement.

For as much as Bobi Wine will most likely premise his campaigns on the fact that NRM has held power for way too long after a record 40 years under Museveni, Muhoozi himself would hope to build from what would have been left behind by his Father’s 4 decades long reign. The length of the time spent in leadership will without doubt present talking points for the first son in a bid to sway support in his favour.

While he would try to take credit for all the positives from his father’s administration, his opponents would trouble him with the the mistakes committed although at this particular point he would seek to ride on individual responsibility for sin being the spotless military servant that he has been through his career.

Bobi Wine will most likely still be appealing to the young people more than his counterpart as he is seven years younger than Muhoozi. That means that by 2026, Muhoozi will be 52 years while Kyagulanyi will have just clocked 45. This means that Muhoozi would have to capitalise and revitalize his fathers nationwide youth structures if he is to fend off Kyagulanyi’s dominance.

If at all Kyagulanyi would be in position to hold together the support of the Baganda – the numerically strongest single ethnic group in the country, then he will give Muhoozi the run for his money. Unlike Eastern and Western regions – the other two of the strongest regions in Uganda by numbers, its only the Baganda with the luxury of having majority of its people speaking the same language. This would be a mega boost for the Kyadondo MP if at all they would vote as a united people.

To beat off Kyagulanyi’s dominance in Buganda, Muhoozi would strive to consolidate the support of the Western region where its people have always united behind his father. He would also strive to consolidate his father’s dominance in other parts of the country most especially from Busoga, while at the same time keeping the Baganda divided along districts, political parties and other minor ethnic groupings within the kingdom such as the Banyara, Baruri, a kin to what his father has been using.

President Museveni has over the years tactically succeeded in convincing Ugandans that the country would be a mess without the army in its administration. As such, he has infiltrated the military in all the sensitive departments of the country ranging from Agriculture, taxi collection, Tourism, police force, legislature etc, so as the the public would have questions over whether a civilian government would ensure their safety and administrative competency.

A senior UPDF trained soldier at the rank of Lt. General, Muhoozi will solely enjoy the support from those that believe that the country can’t be governed by a civilian, and also be able to bring the members of the military whose most senior officers like General Edward Katumba Wamala and General Elly Tumwiine have occasionally threatened not to let civilians mess up the country they fought for or else they ‘go back to the bush.’

Against the facts explained above there, one would be in position to forecast who exactly of the two men with presidential ambitions would have a bigger chance of taking over from President Museveni who would most likely not be seeking reelection after 40 years at the country’s steering wheel.