KAMPALA, Uganda – In a surprising turn ahead of the 2026 elections, Engineer Ronald Balimwezo Nsubuga has emerged as the frontrunner in an online poll by Capital FM Uganda, outpacing incumbent Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago by a wide margin.
The informal X (formerly Twitter) survey, posted on September 3, 2025, asked users: “If the mayoral elections were held today, who would get your vote?” With over 153,000 views and 389 replies, the results reflect growing dissatisfaction with Lukwago’s long tenure.
Analysis of the replies shows approximately 70% favoring Balimwezo, with users praising his engineering background and grassroots initiatives, such as free garbage collection in areas like Mbuya and legal aid for evictees.
One respondent noted, “Hon Balimwezo’s truck has been collecting garbage from my place free of charge,” highlighting his practical approach. In contrast, Lukwago garnered about 30% support, with some crediting his advocacy for the oppressed but others calling for change after 14 years in office.
User-created polls amplified the trend. A survey by @RayBidz with 1,822 votes showed Balimwezo at 78% to Lukwago’s 22%, while another with 82 votes had similar results: 79% to 21%.
Broader X discussions echo this sentiment, with posts like “We thank mayor Lukwago for his time… we would like to try someone else” gaining traction.
Lukwago, a lawyer who has held the post since 2011, unveiled his bid for a fourth term on September 2 under the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), promising infrastructure upgrades and refugee integration. However, critics point to persistent issues like flooding, traffic congestion, and waste management, as reported in recent analyses.
Balimwezo, the National Unity Platform (NUP) flagbearer and Nakawa East MP, brings technical expertise, having been awarded “Best Mayor” in 2015 by the Uganda Local Government Association. His campaign focuses on skilling hubs and urban development.
The poll, while not scientific, underscores a potential opposition split, with NRM backing Moses Kizito Nsubuga. Political analysts warn of voter fatigue with incumbents, as one X user quipped, “How do we expect Museveni’s government to change when Lukwago wants to rule for 20 years?”
As Uganda gears up for 2026, this early indicator suggests Balimwezo could disrupt Lukwago’s dominance, but ground campaigns will be decisive.
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