CHARLES BASAJJA: Artificial Intelligence and the Hidden Agenda Behind Uganda’s Coffee Bill

Imagine this impasse without the fact that President Museveni has publicly awarded the Coffee trade monopoly to a one Enrica Pinneti 2 years ago, a businesswoman with close ties to him and most recently, some Chinese construction firms pivoting to join in on this lucrative coffee deal.

This is by design a dubious takeover of the coffee sector, rather than a merger aimed at improving governance. In so doing, he is ring-fencing the coffee trade for just a selected few including his son-in- law Mr. Odrek Rwabwogo who is already reaping big from the subsector.

The National Coffee (Amendment) Bill, 2024, is more than just legislative disagreements with President Museveni and his cohort Hon. Anitah Annet Among  who owes her Speakership to him due to a prethora of international sanctions and other scandals which were threatening her seat before he stood up for her. Both of these appear to be at the core of the push to rationalize the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), in a move to  consolidate total control over the coffee trade.

The official narrative behind the bill is the generic need to streamline public administration and reduce the number of government agencies to save resources. However, this justification falls flat when considering that UCDA is self-sustaining, generating its own revenue without drawing from the consolidated fund. This merger of UCDA into the line Ministry is simply a strategic move to control the coffee trade, rather than a genuine effort to improve efficiency.

Understand this; Uganda is a key player in the global coffee market, valued at around $102 billion. In the last year alone, Uganda exported approximately 6.13 million bags of coffee, generating around $1.14 billion in revenue. As one of the top coffee producers in Africa, second only to Ethiopia, Uganda’s high-quality Arabica and Robusta beans are in high demand, particularly in Europe, the United States, and Asia. This makes Uganda a vital part of the global coffee supply chain. Contrast this with our national budget estimate requirement of 72 trillion Ugx.

Furthermore, the coffee sector is not just an economic powerhouse but also a cultural symbol, with over 130 districts and more than 12 million Ugandan jobs involved in the entire value chain.

This potential phasing out of UCDA raises more questions than there are answers about the cost opportunity and the impact on the coffee subsector. UCDA has played a crucial role in supporting local farmers, enhancing coffee quality, and promoting Ugandan coffee on the global stage.

For instance, Uganda’s highland gorilla coffee from Kisoro recently won a gold medal in Paris, highlighting the international recognition of the country’s coffee.

Besides that, there are some political ramifications; the timing of the bill is politically charged, with the 2026 general elections on the horizon. Increased revenue from coffee exports could empower the populace economically as seen from the increase in the happiness index in greater Buganda, making them less susceptible to vote-buying tactics.

This poses a threat to Museveni’s grip on power, as a more economically empowered citizenry is likely to make more informed political decisions.

And there is also the seemingly strong opposition from Buganda region MPs, a genuinely significant coffee-growing area and a political stronghold for the opposition which is motivated by the Speaker of Parliament’s controversial remark,— “Make sure those Baganda do not get the numbers,”

This came out as being suspicious of a targeted political strategy to weaken Buganda’s economic influence and opposition stance.

Here, the old adage of no smoke without fire is very relevant seeing the smoke from Buganda has not gone out since independence.

What is in Coffee? Its importance extends beyond being a popular beverage. Used coffee grounds can enrich garden soil as a natural fertilizer, exfoliate skin, repel insects, and neutralize odors.
It can also serve as a natural dye for fabrics, be converted into biofuel and can also  tenderize meat, making it more flavorful and tender.

But more importantly, ground coffee can be used in energy storage devices like batteries in a world where AI is demanding more battery life for further technological advances.

It is these diverse applications which make  coffee not only versatile but also potent with great potential for sustainability and innovation.

Therefore, this Coffee Bill, 2024, is more than just a piece of legislation for President Museveni, it is a strategic move to consolidate power and control over a vital tool for the local economy and by extension, a negotiation tool in an increasingly multi-polar global economy within the context of geopolitical terms.

Sadly so to speak, Uganda’s ordinary coffee farmers, just like, sugarcane farmers, cotton farmers, fishermen, local miners, traders and anything with a promise to put money in the pockets of ordinary Ugandans always meets the same fate. President Museveni always fights it with everything he has got. If it is not heavily taxed, it’s ring-fenced for friends and family as seen on milk products which don’t fetch any taxes and minerals which have been gazetted into free trade zone areas.

The rest of the broader economy and us ordinary citizens can roll over and die until it’s no longer an option. Then, we the people, will take back our jobs and justice will prevail.