As Uganda approaches the 2026 general elections, fears of escalating political violence are reaching alarming levels, with politicians and political analysts warning of the potential resurgence of violent cartels tied to political factions. These groups, which some have described as “musical hooligans,” are said to be forming their own independent fighting units, heightening concerns about the safety and fairness of the upcoming elections.
A growing trend of politically motivated violence is causing widespread anxiety, particularly given Uganda’s history of election-related unrest. Politicians and analysts are raising alarms, emphasizing that the country could be on the verge of a crisis unless serious steps are taken to curb the growing threats.
The rising tension was underscored by a chilling prediction from popular yet controversial Ugandan musician Patrick Mulwana, known by his stage name Alien Skin. During the Nkuuka Festival on the new year eve in Kampala, Mulwana, whose controversial actions have garnered attention in recent months, suggested that Uganda was heading into a period of deep political and social turmoil.
“Happy New Year, I welcome you from the past year, which was a tough one. Now this new year will even be tougher, a year of reckoning and many battles,” Mulwana said, fueling fears that the nation could face widespread electoral violence in the run-up to the 2026 polls.
Political figures, concerned by the emergence of these violent factions, argue that the growing influence of these cartels poses a direct threat to Uganda’s electoral process. These cartels, they claim, have little regard for the rule of law and are often used by political parties to intimidate opponents and disrupt the democratic process. Analysts suggest that the rising influence of these groups, combined with a climate of impunity, could lead to widespread unrest in the months ahead.
Sadam Gayira, Chairman of the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), in an interview with NBSTV expressed his deep concern about the situation, calling for the condemnation of political violence in all its forms. “We need to condemn this situation because for the users, they can use and dump, and they will not run out of people to use,” Gayira remarked in an interview with NBSTV.
He went on to explain that the law enforcement agencies, by engaging in extrajudicial activities such as torture and unlawful detention, have only exacerbated the problem.
The warnings have been echoed by several prominent political figures, including John Kyikonyogo, Chairperson of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). Kyikonyogo stressed the importance of condemning political violence holistically, regardless of whether it originates from the government or opposition.
“We need to strengthen the electronic framework to ensure fairness and transparency in the elections. We also need to improve and reinforce the independence of the Electoral Commission,” he said, calling for immediate reforms to prevent the country from descending into further chaos.
The situation has become even more volatile in recent weeks, with Alien Skin and his associates reportedly involved in violent incidents. These include an alleged assault on a medical practitioner at Nsambya Hospital, an attack on the National Unity Platform (NUP) offices, and an assault on revelers at the Empele Festival in Buloba on New Year’s Day. Most notably, Alien Skin was accused of attacking fellow musician Pius Mayanja, better known as Pallaso, during this event, sparking further concern about the role of musicians in fueling political violence.
In response to these incidents, the State Minister in charge of Children and Youth Affairs, Hon. Balam Barugahara, distanced the government from any involvement with Alien Skin or his violent actions. Barugahara stated that Mulwana, despite his public profile, is not affiliated with the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party.
He further warned Mulwana that he risks facing legal consequences for his actions. “My government, the government I serve, does not support crime or sponsor criminality,” Barugahara said. “The same government arrested Alien Skin just a few months ago, and although he was released by the courts, those who commit crimes should not be granted bail.”
Political violence, especially when backed by influential figures such as musicians and party leaders, is a growing concern in Uganda as the 2026 elections approach.
Analysts argue that swift interventions from both the government and the international community are critical to preventing the situation from spiraling out of control.
Calls for meaningful reforms, including the strengthening of law enforcement and electoral institutions, are becoming more urgent as the risks of violent extremism continue to rise.
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