Just over a year ago, the excitement was too high among change loving Ugandans who had strongly believed that the emergency of Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi could be an opportunity to usher in a new political era, ending Museveni’s 35 grip on power.
His well published role in helping some opposition politicians into Parliament such as Rukungiri’s Betty Muzanira, Jinja East’s Paul Mwiru, Bugiri Municipality’s Asuman Basalirwa and Arua’s Kasiano Wadri had convinced the country of a United opposition future under the firebrand youthful politician.
In Bugiri particularly, Bobi Wine has successfully managed to overshadow the two decade long opposition pace setter Besigye by bringing all the other major opposition forces under one umbrella leaving FDC isolated. And indeed, he miraculously delivered Basalirwa to Parliament after meeting disaster on each of the previous four attempts the smart council had tried.
Some people had optimistically projected that some big name opposition chiefs such as Besigye and Muntu could rally behind Kyagulanyi to oust Museveni come next year.
As we speak now, Mr Kyagulanyi, under his new political party – the National Unity Platform has already attracted a 16 MPs to himself, a record only outmatched by Col Kizza Besigye’s 30 while forming FDC in 2005.
The difference however this time round is that almost all the said MPs are from Buganda and crossing mainly from another opposition party to this new party leading to a conclusion that this is only affecting one opposition party and not the regime in power.
Another factor worthy considering is that of all the members who have so far crossed, none among those Mr Bobi Wine fought to bring to Parliament has sought to pay back with Asuman opting to fight under his justice Forum while Wadri and Mwiru have preferred Muntu’s ANT instead with Betty Muzanira staying put in FDC.
As for FDC, they launched with 30 MPs and national political figures, majority of who were coming from the ruling Government which gave them a national appeal.
Some of the notable members of the Museveni government that embraced FDC upon it’s formation included; Kizza Besigye, Winnie Kiiza, Winnie Byanyima, Eriya Kategaya, Sam Kalega Njuba, Sulaiman Kigundu, Salaamu Musumba, Prof Ogenga Latigo, Reagan Okumu, Nathan Nandala – Mafabi, Alice Alaso, Wandera Ogalo, Mugisha Muntu, Amanya Mushega, Kaijuka, Dr Frank Nabwiso, Abdu Katuntu, Kassiano Wadri, Maj John Kazoora, Jack Sabiti, Augustine Ruzindana, Wafula Oguttu Phillip, Kajubi among others.
From start FDC had a national character and presence in all districts! These people had experience and skills in political mobilization which was partly the reason why their agenda was easily implanted on the whole country on such a short time!
According to Andrew Mwenda,NUP- the party he subscribes to is “just large collection of political novices and is not a promising start for a group seeking to dislodge a deeply entrenched Museveni!”
He further contends that they need to recognize that NUP occupies a minority space and needs to build itself to a majority! To do this, he argues that “they need to be accommodating of persons with divergent views! But it’s hubris and radical extremism blocks them from seeing this reality, which will stunt their growth!”
Some political analysts have argued that Bobi Wine’s political amateurism is all that could have scared experienced politicians away from him.
It’s been reported that there had been a number of high level political engagement between Besigye’s FDC and Bobi Wine with the aim of arriving at a political partnership which would see the four time Presidential Candidate backing the singer’s presidential bid but he failed to get convinced by Bobi Wine’s reasoning.
As such, although Besigye had already made up his mind of not taking on Museveni in 2021,he did not see Bobi Wine as the man to rally behind as a conduit to achieve change from Museveni.
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