How cunning Tumukunde lured Museveni into his trap

The arrest of Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde on Thursday night may turn out to be a master stroke for the ex-Museveni Man on his road into the county’s political opposition.

Following the shocking declaration of his Presidential bid, a section of the public came out to loudly rule out his impact in the race and some concluded he was only looking for attention. Popular political analyst Tamale Mirundi out rightly downplayed Tumukunde and predicted that he wouldn’t get more than 5000 votes in 2021.

Hajji Abdul Nadduli, former Minister without Portfolio, said that Tumukunde’s bid was driven by greed, while government spokesperson Ofwono Opondo described his bid a s a joke with no possibility of injury to the NRM chances in 2021.

Doctor Besigye of Forum for Democratic Change seemed to suggest that Tumukunde was a project of Museveni to weaken the opposition when he questioned whether he really wanted change and charged at him with an accusation of aiding Museveni in vote rigging in the previous elections.

For a man of Tumukunde’s intellect however, these are things he must have contemplated upon and seen coming. Having been a close Museveni ally in the recent times,he must have foreseen that convincing the public that he seriously wanted and meant change for Uganda wasn’t going to be a walk in the park. As such he must have thought of avenues to make himself relevant as well as proving his doubters that he wasn’t into games like many were putting it.

A soldier of Tumukunde’s profile ought to have clearly known where all his media utterances were likely to lead him – Luzira. He however continued firing his contagious verbal artillery, to the discomfort of the government and President Museveni until it appeared no longer bearable.

His recent appearances in the numerous media interviews are all a testimony  that the retired Army boss was digging a trap for his would be tormentors and when he was finally arrested, his target had taken his bait.

According to NTV’s Sudhir Byaruhanga, Tumukunde never showed any signs of someone bothered by what many saw as a sure end for the determined Presidential hopeful. He went smiling as the heavily armed military convoy whisked him to Kibuli for interrogation, leaving a strong message for his supporters on his social media platforms that he wasn’t about to give up.

Motive

Tumukunde, a former Country’s spy chief, celebrated 3 star General, Minister of security a Muhororo from Ankole, a 2016 Museveni reelection chief architect and above all a relative to the First family, must have wanted to fully detach himself from the NRM establishment, no wonder he has,on many occasions labored to explain his forced choices in serving under the regime he claims to have fallen out with many years back. While appearing on the NTV on the  Spot recently Tumukunde,asked by his host Patrick Kamara, about his inconsistency in falling out with Museveni and making a U turn, seemed to suggest that he had traded his political conscience to secure his freedom from a military yoke that his boss had put around his neck. He also downplayed the statements by sources that linked him to the inner circles within the government, reasoning that he had done a lot for the government than he had received in return.

“Apart from serving in the UPDF, how many times have I been in Government? You mean this brief time at the Ministry of Security,” Tumukunde said during the media interview.

He also must have wanted to send a signal to all the NRM regime fanatics that where jumping around chest thumping that the retired combatant was actually a project of their establishment, that he had gone for good and expected no any friendly gestures from them. His call for Kagame to act and effect a change of regime was an extreme that no regime collaborator would be willing to take with simplicity.

Winning over he hearts of the pro – change forces was Tumukunde’s preoccupation right from the time he must have started contemplating to challenge for the top most office. When he declared he would be rocking horns with Museveni in 2021, many members of the opposition were skeptical about fully embracing him, with many suspecting he had been planted by the regime to disrupt cohesion with in their ranks. As such, Tumukunde was ready to chose the most risky but sure and dependable method of proving his doubters wrong. He dared what many wouldn’t dare do.

He also aimed at creating fault lines with in the NRM, demystifying Museveni’s invincibility he had earlier on said that standing for president shouldn’t be limited to a few people as it was a constitutional right and anybody should feel free to do it. In a Tuesday interview with NBS, former Army Commander, Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu revealed that at least 8 out of 10 of the senior army officers in the UPDF were disappointed in the regime but we’re only kept there for fear of losing their jobs, being witch hunted and suffocation of their means of survival economically. He seemed to refer to his bush war comrade, Tumukunde as a representation of many people within the army and the NRM, foretelling a possible influx of many others from the regime after Tumukunde. If Muntu’s prophesy comes true, Tumukunde will have succeeded in breaking the initial point of the rift that will later bring the NRM government crumbling.

Paid off

There is no doubt that Tumukunde will become a strong force to reckon with at least in the future opposition politics of the country. Shortly after the news of his arrest, many, including Col Kizza Besigye who was appearing at the NTV’s on the spot show appeared to have soften his earlier stance on the Museveni ally come nemesis Tumukunde when he welcomed him to the”real world” and called upon the public to embrace him as every persons that joins from the opposition is an invaluable addition.

Just like Besigye, Mukono Municipality’s Betty Nambooze commented on the arrest with sadness, despite his earlier dossier cautioning the opposition to trade carefully with the new entrant into their ranks. This shows that at last, Tumukunde will have to feel at home within the ranks of the opposition.

Tumukunde finally was able to send a message to the government and it’s supporters that he had crossed the line of no return. Ono bwino, a Luganda weekly tabloid had earlier reported that General Salim Saleh, Museveni’s young brother had proposed a meeting with General Tumukunde to possibly iron out the differences and halt his Presidential bid which was outrightly rejected by President Museveni, who chose to crack the whip on the defiant general from Rukungiri instead. Following his arrest however, any possibility of re-conciliatory engagements are far from likely. Tumukunde seems to be gone for good.

Lastly and most importantly,the arrest issued the rebellious Tumukunde with a mega presidential bid launch that he badly and desperately needed. Until his arrest, there was no single decisive factor that would make Ugandans think of him as a presidential contender despite his glorious service in the military and within the regime ranks. He needed a more clear statement and he got it just at the right time. He will dominate both the local and international media even as he is in home arrest. As it appears unlikely that the arrest will impede his appearance on the ballot, he will most likely return into the polls with a big bang.