By Balamaze David
Many people online and callers have been asking me whether I see any possibility of USA attacking The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea. Others suggest that America fears The DPRK. Ignorant ones even say that the DPRK will attack USA with nuclear weapons and hence seem to believe that DPRK is stronger than USA which is wrong. For purposes of clarity, North Korea has not more than 10 nuclear war head, while the US has about 7200. Apart from that, the DPRK does not yet have the capacity to put a nuclear war head on the deliverable and therefore even if attacked, it’s capacity to use the war heads it has in its arsenal is currently very limited.
Truthfully, The US has a 98% advantage over North Korea in case of any confrontation. N.B. The remaining 2% in DPRK’s favour is something big and troubling American generals on how to reduce it.
Now another question arises; with all that overwhelming advantage over The DPRK, why doesn’t the USA attack and put the conflict to an end and remove the danger? The answer is; sending the military into harm’s way (any war) is the most difficult decision to any commander in chief. Even if it was USA attacking Uganda or Rwanda or South Sudan, it will still be a hard decision for Trump to make.
The reason is it involves death of people on both sides and also causes devastation – loss of property on the side of the country attacked, which takes America a lot money to build those countries again.
Will USA attack?
The US has been so lenient with DPRK. A strategic mistake was done by Obama who took The DPRK off the hook when he removed the option of military on table in case DPRK continued with its nuclear program, and he introduced a spolicy he called “Strategic Patience”.
This way, the DPRK could do everything it wanted in regards to its nuclear program, when very sure that the Obama administration will do nothing militarily to stop them. To be clear, The DPRK does not care about economic sanctions. It accepts its people do die of hunger and it continues pouring the little it has in its nuclear program.
When Donald J. Trump assumed office, he declared the end of the days of strategic patience. He said all options are now on table. Options include, the diplomatic option –Negotiations, the sanctions option, and the military option as a last resort. He requested China to reign in North Korea by curbing its trade with it. China hasn’t sufficiently done this and all UN sanctions on North Korea have not brought it to the negotiating table. South Korea New president – Moon official invited DPRK for military talks, they didn’t even waste time to respond.
Now what next?
For the first time, I have seen a senator – Lindsey O’Graham on Fox News saying that there will be war if North Korea doesn’t stop its nuclear and intercontinental missile activity. These senators together with John McCain are known for opposing Trump. This time he agreed with him on this issues and he is the first senator to do it. This signals something. He said this at the same time when secretary of state Rex Tillerson is saying that they are committed to a peaceful resolution of the situation. These two conflicting statements are one of the strengths of Trumps gov’t. They do it to confuse enemies.
The challenge is that declaring war is done by only the Congress under the US law. This means that Trump has to go to congress to request for permission. The process can alert North Korea to prepare. The solution is to do as George Bush did on Iraq, or Israel did on Saddam Hussein. Trump can also call Congress in a closed door session and request for permission. The first problem with this is the leaks that may spoil the beans. The biggest challenge is that many congressmen and women may not be willing to support the attack, since the Iraq war caused the downfall of many politicians including Hillary Clinton. They now fear sending America to war.
The Democrats are also obstructionists. All they care about is fighting and opposing and failing Trump do anything. But in this case trump can make it clear that for him he is determined to attack, and make it clear that any member who blocks the proposal to attack will bear the responsibility today or in future in case The DPRK goes rogue and attacks US with Nuclear and kill thousands, because they have chance to stop it now.
As I have been watching Sen. Lindsey O’Graham, he has said there will be war and if thousands are to die, they will die and they better die in North Korea not in the US. ( Do you make sense of that statement?)
Naïve analysts say that North Korea has 10,000/ artillery pieces and it will use them to demolish South Korea in case it’s attacked. This is false assessment though these military analysts may be making them intentionally not to let DPRK know the war plan. In case of war, US and South Korean military jets such as B-2 Spirit Bomber, B1B Lancer, F-16, F-35, F-22 B-52 etc will bomb all those artillery pieces and within minutes they will be no more. The US has already stationed the THAAD system in S. Korea to intercept any ballistic missi3le from North Korea, and also Japan has the Patriot Air Defense System of the US to do the same job. (Watch our Documentary called “AMERICA THE SUPER POWER” to see them). DPRK has no trong airforce to challenge that of USA, yet air technology is vital in winning wars in this 21st Century.
The DPRK has over 1 million military personnel, but foot soldiers can no longer- win the war. The only strength DPRK has is the number of submarine. It has over 60 and it’s second to America in the number of submarines in the whole world.
So will the US attack?
It’s likely if North Korea continues on the same path.
What will happen if US attacks?
Other allies of the US such as France, South Korea, Japan – am not sure with UK, will go with the US.
The North Korean regime and the Kim’s dynasty will collapse; Kim Jong un might even be killed if he does run quickly out of DPRK to China or Russia.
Over 1 million people will die in North Korea alone and there will be overwhelming destruction in there to send a message to all other dictators and all nations of the world including Russia and China, not to dare even think of challenging the US.
The war is likely to spill over into China, but China and Russia won’t dare confront the US directly, especially now when it Trump leading the USA.
This is my take;
America should attack North Korea to bring back discipline to the world. The UN Security Council has lost any meaning since time after time the DPRK has defied its resolutions stopping DPRK from engaging in nuclear and ballistic missile activity, yet China and Russia will never back any resolution aimed at using force on any country. US should attack to send a message that even without a resolution, they can discipline rogue states. In case of any confrontation, North Korea will lose the war.