In a chilling admission that has reignited debate over the character and future of Uganda’s opposition politics, JEEMA president Asuman Basalirwa recently told the media that if Bobi Wine ever became president, “I would be dead, in jail, or in exile.” Once a trusted ally of the National Unity Platform (NUP) leader, Basalirwa’s fears reflect a broader pattern of intolerance and political purging that has emerged around Kavule—the symbolic headquarters of Bobi Wine’s movement.
From Ally to Enemy: The Basalirwa Fallout
Basalirwa’s political journey was once intertwined with Bobi Wine’s rise. In 2018, Bobi Wine personally campaigned for Basalirwa in Bugiri, helping him secure a parliamentary seat. But the relationship has since soured. Bobi Wine recently denounced Basalirwa at a rally, accusing him of betrayal and urging voters to support NUP’s candidate instead. This public humiliation, coupled with Basalirwa’s fears of persecution, suggests a dangerous shift in NUP’s internal culture—from inclusive activism to militant purism.
Who Else Might Be Targeted?
If NUP takes power, who else could face political retribution, exile, or worse? Here’s a breakdown of potential targets based on past clashes, ideological differences, and perceived betrayals:
1. President Yoweri Museveni
The ultimate adversary. Bobi Wine has vowed to dismantle Museveni’s legacy, accusing him of dictatorship and corruption. Legal action, asset seizures, or symbolic humiliation could follow a regime change. Bobi Wine has often asked Museveni to relinquish power to him, once calling State House his own and so is the bed on which the Head of State sleeps. The fight has evolved into something personal that a public interest and as such, one would rightly speculate the father of the nation would be targeted as well.
2. Dr. Kizza Besigye
Though both oppose Museveni, Besigye’s refusal to endorse NUP and his alternative resistance strategy have made him a thorn in Bobi Wine’s side. His ideological independence could be punished. Bobi Wine has publicly denounced the four-time Presidential candidate for derailing the struggle and later turning around to preach against election. A popular talk that Besigye has been playing games with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni emanated from Kamwokya- the then Headquarters of NUP before circulating.
3. Lubega Mukaku
A former People Power insider turned critic, Mukaku has accused Bobi Wine of betrayal and dictatorial tendencies. His vocal dissent and insider knowledge make him a high-risk target. He is also a confidant of Wine’s archrival, Mathais Mpuuga Nsamba who the Kavule man want punished at every cost.
4. Medard Ssegona
Once a key legal strategist for NUP, Ssegona’s growing distance and rumored disagreements over party direction could make him vulnerable to political sidelining. His relationship with former Leader of Opposition, Mpuuga alongside his education in a movement of foot soldiers have largely been rumored to be the genesis if his problems in NUP. In fact, he was recently denied the party flag in favor of an entertainer- Mathias Walukaga. This was a move not many saw coming.
5. Mathias Mpuuga
The former Leader of Opposition was publicly shamed over “service awards” and has resisted calls to resign. His defiance and popularity make him a likely target for internal purging.
6. Dr. Abed Bwanika
A founding member of NUP, Bwanika has accused Bobi Wine of intolerance and poor leadership. His intellectual independence and grassroots appeal threaten the party’s monopoly.
7. General Muhoozi Kainerugaba
Museveni’s son and a potential presidential contender, Muhoozi has been mocked and condemned by Bobi Wine. A power shift could bring legal or symbolic retaliation.
8. Gen. Salim Saleh
Museveni’s brother and a key figure in Uganda’s military-industrial complex, Saleh’s influence could be dismantled under a NUP regime seeking to “clean house.” Recently, Kyagulanyi appealed to General Saleh to plead with his brother, Museveni to hand over power, claiming the President’s brother was the only sensible person in the first family.
9. Joyce Bagala
Though elected under NUP, Bagala has maintained a degree of independence. Her journalistic background and moderate tone may not align with NUP’s increasingly militant posture.
10. Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda
A sharp critic of NUP’s populism, Ssemujju’s principled stance and refusal to toe the party line could make him a target for isolation or smear campaigns. He has openly challenged the Kavule group of fighting well grounded leaders while bringing up people only good enough to entertain people or serve as tax collectors in markets.
11. Moses Bigirwa
Once NUP’s Eastern Uganda coordinator, Bigirwa fell out with Kavule and now serves as Secretary General of Munyagwa’s Common Man’s Party. His exposés of NUP’s internal rot and rising influence in Busoga make him a prime candidate for retaliation.
12. Peter Mayiga
The Katikkiro of Buganda has faced repeated attacks from Bobi Wine’s camp for allegedly collaborating with the ruling regime. At a rally in Nakaseke, Bobi Wine even rewarded MP Lutamaguzi Ssemakula with a Shillings Fifty note for publicly accusing Mengo of undermining “your own son.”
13. Kabaka Ronald Muwenda Mutebi
As the head of an institution Bobi Wine has openly criticized, the Kabaka could face symbolic or political marginalization under a regime that views Buganda’s leadership as compromised.
14. Janet Museveni
The First Lady has been targeted not just for her government role but for her symbolic association with Museveni’s rule. Bobi Wine has repeatedly invoked her name in critiques of nepotism and elite privilege.
15. Rebecca Kadaga
Once courted by NUP, Kadaga was publicly supported by Bobi Wine in Kamuli and during her 2021 speakership loss. But her recent reaffirmation of loyalty to NRM and Museveni has been viewed as a betrayal that NUP may not forgive.
16. Anita Among
As Speaker of Parliament and a staunch Museveni ally, Among has clashed with NUP over parliamentary procedures and political dominance. Her role in defeating Kadaga in the CEC race further cements her as a likely target.
17. Norbert Mao
The DP president’s alliance with Museveni and criticism of NUP’s populism could make him a prime target for political retribution.
18. Joseph Kabuleta
An independent activist who has criticized both NUP and NRM, Kabuleta’s alternative narrative could be suppressed under a regime intolerant of dissent.
19. Charles Rwomushana
A controversial analyst who has questioned Bobi Wine’s credentials, Rwomushana’s outspoken style could invite censorship or arrest.
20. Ssalongo Erias Lukwago. For turning down invitations by the Kavule kingpins to join NUP, Lukwago over stepped the boundaries in the eyes of Bobi Wine. How could he dare the Ghetto gladiator by choosing Besigye over him yet he is a muganda? Lukwago’s role as party President for the newly formed People’s Front for Freedom ( PFF) has been interpreted as a direct challenge to Bobi Wine- the man who feels Buganda should exclusively belong to him.
A Movement at War With Itself?
As Uganda approaches another pivotal election, the opposition’s internal fractures are becoming more visible—and more dangerous. Basalirwa’s fears may be personal, but they echo a broader concern: that the NUP’s intolerance could morph into authoritarianism if unchecked. The list of potential targets is growing, and the stakes for Uganda’s democratic future have never been higher.
The writer is the Assistant Resident City Commissioner for Nyendo Mukungwe in Masaka City
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