By Andrew Baba Buluba
The country will again head to the polls early next year to elect leaders for another five year term. The Electoral Commission concluded the process of nomination for the Presidential candidates, with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu of National Resistance Movement ( NRM) and National Unity Platform (NUP) being joined by other six contenders. Of the eight, close attention is expected to be on President Museveni and Bobi Wine although the alliance between Gregory Muntu Mugisha and the People’s Front for Freedom could provide yet another sweet affair to watch.
PFF is led by incarcerated opposition leader Col Warren Kizza Besigye unofficially but most of its top leadership hails from Buganda, a stronghold of Mr Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine. There had been reports of engagements among the different forces to arrive at a single opposition candidate. These were led by the PFf of Erias Lukwago and Ssemujju Nganda. Reports have since emerged that the Katonga group who had already made up their mind not to front a Presidetial candidate had only wished for a unity led by old foe, Mugisha Muntu while NUP would stick to their Reggie boss at whatever cost. As such, discussions collapsed, with Katonga throwing their weight behind Muntu and Bobi Wine going sole. This denied Kyagulanyi the slightest chance of commanding opposition votes in Buganda and also riding on the Besigye cloud outside Central Uganda to threaten Museveni.
In Buganda where NUP crashed NRM with ease, four candidates will this time round call it home tuff, further complication things for Habibu Buwembo who is charged with the duty of mobilizing for the Kavule based outfit. Robert Kyagulanyi, Robert Kasibante, Mubarak Munyagwa and Elton Joseph Mabirizi are all grandchildren of Kintu and therefore, going into this election, they will be backing on home support to begin with. This is very much likely to considerably eat into NUP’s enviable support base in Buganda.
The amicable relationship between NRM and the Democratic Party (DP) is expected to further cause problems for the opposition as the oldest party in Uganda undeniably retains considerable support in some parts of the country, especially Buganda. In Masaka, another Bobi Wine stronghold, personal clashes between for Leader of Opposition Mathais Mpuuga and Bobi Wine has evidently left obvious bruises not easy to heal in a short term. With the formation of the Democratic Front( DF) and Mpuuga’s refusal to endorse Wine or any opposition party for 2026 leaves a hugely disjointed force for NRM to pounce upon on an unencumbered paths to State House.
In Busoga, the only subregion outside Buganda where NUPs presidential candidate threatened Museveni, suspicion and bad blood among the top leaders have left the group vulnerable. Moses Bigirwa who many had envisaged to be the face of NUP has since broken ties with Kavule, rather joining Mubarak Munyagwa’s Common Man’s Party(CMP). With him, Bigirwa has moved with John Front Ngalula, who had served as the coordinator for Kalito District and a top youth leader. Such cases have made many Badoga feel less welcome in a party the rest of the country has famously labeled a ” Baganda affair.” It will, therefore be a big challenge for the Kyagulanyi camp which is already alienated by sister forces, to convince the Basoga to stick with him as he seeks to end Museveni’s four decade reign.
As the campaigns kick off on Monday, September 29, the focus of the public will be on how the highly shredded opposition manages to pull their efforts together to give president Museveni who seems solid and more organized an upset that will end his monopoly over state power.
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