To directly explain the argument I make in this article, I begin by referencing Dr. Yusuf Serunkuma’s piece published in the Weekly Observer on December 3, 2025, titled “The jokes we tell ourselves.” Drawing on David Mpanga’s thesis about the absence of common sense in Uganda, Dr. Serunkuma argues that “there is an absolute lack of seriousness. We joke too much. We tell lies not just to others, but to ourselves endlessly.”
This insight offers a useful lens for interpreting Uganda’s current political season. It leads to a critical question: Is Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) still in the race to win the presidency, or is he merely running campaigns?
This question arises from a recurring pattern in Kyagulanyi’s political mobilization. His strongest support remains concentrated in certain urban centers—particularly among younger people—many of whom, based on my own assessment, may not even be registered voters. If elections were held today, it is unlikely that Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu would cross the 28% threshold.
Recent reporting by Dokolo Post under the headline “Back-to-Back Setbacks: Dokolo Rejects Bobi Wine…” reinforces this argument. Events in Dokolo found in Lango region illustrate the gap between the excitement seen at some of Kyagulanyi’s rallies and his actual prospects of winning the ballot. What emerged there was an impression of a campaign geared more towards maintaining visibility and momentum rather than seriously threatening state power.
Even among his own online supporters, this reality is sometimes acknowledged quietly. One supporter remarked to me:
“It is true Kyagulanyi sometimes gets a large turnout like in Luwero, but will Luwero alone vote him into power? We cannot manage Museveni.”
In contrast, an assessment of President Museveni’s rallies in the Ankole sub-region suggests a different dynamic. His crowds appear consistently larger, and indicators point to a comfortable lead in the ongoing campaigns—at least for now.
These contrasting observations bring us back to the central question: Is Robert Kyagulanyi still in the presidential race to win, or is he engaged in a campaign whose primary function is to remain politically visible?
The answer may lie in the coming weeks. But what is clear for now is that Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has the majority of supporters across Uganda’s political terrain.
Ayub Mukisa, PhD
Executive Director, Karamoja Anti-Corruption Coalition (KACC)
Email: ayubmukisa@gmail.com
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