When a rat starts dancing in the open, just know it has seen a way to escape. And Dr. Kizza Besigye’s detention has set off a wave of political maneuvering, exposing the true interests of those who now speak for him.
At the center of this saga are four key figures: Bobi Wine and his National Unity Platform (NUP), Besigye’s wife Winnie Byanyima, and the Kyagulanyi associates, who for years have accused Besigye of working with the government. The situation has turned into a chessboard where everyone is making strategic moves, using Besigye’s misfortune to their advantage.
Besigye is detained on charges that those now fighting for him are ironically trying to keep out of their own political battles. His detention initially attracted little reaction from NUP, a party that has long treated him as a political relic.
Kyagulanyi’s team has in the past accused Besigye of being a gov’t mole, alleging that he owns petrol stations that supply fuel to government agencies at the expense of taxpayers.
When Besigye stated that Museveni cannot be removed through elections, Bobi Wine fired back, questioning how a man who contested four consecutive times could now claim elections were pointless, unless he had hidden motives.
For long, as Besigye languished in detention, NUP remained silent, avoiding association with the man they once sought to dethrone from the opposition’s top seat. But then, like a lioness protecting her young one, Winnie Byanyima roared, calling on Bobi Wine to speak up. Suddenly, NUP sprang into action, shifting gears from indifference to active advocacy for Besigye’s release.
The timing was suspicious, suggesting they saw an opportunity to reignite their declining popularity by appearing to fight for an opposition figure they had long dismissd.
Winnie Byanyima has positioned herself as the most vocal advocate for her husband’s release. Publicly, she denies having political ambitions, but behind closed doors, the political winds are shifting. It would not be surprising to see her name on the 2031 presidential ballot.
She is using this moment to market herself, gaining the sympathy of Ugandans who view her as a fearless woman standing up to the state.
Byanyima’s presence at NUP headquarters recently, in Kavule, where she fiercely criticized Museveni, raised eyebrows. This was not just a wife fighting for her husband’s freedom, but a calculated move to place herself at the center of Uganda’s political conversation.
The proverb “A chick that will grow into a cock is spotted the very day it hatches” applies perfectly here, Byanyima is testing the waters for a future political bid.
At first glance, it appears that NUP is using Byanyima to regain lost political ground. With Besigye out of the way, NUP saw a chance to rally suport by fighting for him, making themselves look like the true defenders of democracy. But the reality is more complex, Byanyima is also using NUP to boost her own visibility.
NUP may believe they are controlling the narrative, but Byanyima is playing the long game.
If she runs in 2031, she will need opposition support, and aligning herself with NUP now creates an image of unity that could benefit her later. The NUP-Byanyima relationship is like two hyenas circling the same prey, each thinking they are outsmarting the other.
It is a harsh reality, but in politics, tragedy can be a powerful tool. If Besigye were to die in detention (God forbid), NUP would gain immense political mileage, using his death as a rallying point in the 2031 elections. The same party that once called him a mole would suddenly paint him as a fallen hero, a martyr for democracy.
They would use his death to attack Museveni’s government and rally support, just as they did after the November 2020 protests.
This is why their advocacy for his release comes with a certain level of hypocrisy. They are not fighting for Besigye out of loyalty or respect, they doing it because it benefits them politically.
The proverb “A drowning man will clutch at a straw” describes NUP’s situation perfectly. Their influence has been waning, and Besigye’s detention has given them a lifeline.
Ironically, Besigye also stands to benefit from his own detention. For years, Bobi Wine and NUP pushed him aside, branding him a spent force. Now, his arrest has made him the center of national discussion again. The man they called a “mole” is now the opposition’s biggest talking point.
This may be Besigye’s way of reminding Bobi Wine and NUP that he is not finished yet. If he emerges from this ordeal with his political strength intact, he could use this moment to rebuild his base and challenge NUP’s dominance.
The saying “An old lion still has teeth” fits well here, Besigye may have been pushed aside, but he is not out of the game.
Besigye’s detention is not just a legal issue, but a political battlefield where every player has an agenda. NUP is using it to revive its fading influence, Byanyima is using it to test her political strength, and Besigye himself is using it to regain relevance.
In the end, the true victims are the Ugandan people, who are caught in the middle of a struggle where loyalty is an illusion, and personal ambition outweighs genuine political change. As the saying goes, “The forest is shrinking, but the trees keep voting for the axe.” Uganda’s opposition remains divided, not because of government interference, but because of their own selfish interests.
The writer is the Assistant RCC for Nyendo Mukungwe, Masaka City
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