It is far from pretty, it is a bloodbath in Ukraine, but it seems Russia’s Putin has already fulfilled his main objectives for the war in Ukraine if, obviously, NATO don’t later mess it all up for him.
I believe that Putin went into Ukraine for mainly two reasons: water and gas, not to necessarily reclaim the former USSR territory, as it was widely reported.
Russia dominates the supply of crude oil and gas in Europe, which explains why the sanctions against Russia have affected the rest of Europe, too. That position was being threatened by Ukraine if Putin hadn’t annexed Crimea. Norway is another oil/gas producer in Europe, but it is looking for a greener future.
Ukraine today holds the second biggest known gas reserves in Europe, and most of it is concentrated around the Crimean Peninsula and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) which Russians controls at the moment.
By the way, Putin wasn’t bothered about this till 2014 when an unfavourable regime took over in Ukraine. There was literally a coup against a pro-Russian president by the west. In 2013, after early steps to integrate with the West, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych turned against the west and ended trade integration talks with the European Union. Months before his overthrow, he restarted economic negotiations with Russia, in a major snub to the Western economic sphere. By then, the nationalist protests were heating up that would go on to topple his government.
After his overthrow, Putin knew that he needed to match into Crimea immediately, a move that made him (Putin) popular in Russia. Putin looks at Crimea the same way NATO took Kosovo from Serbia. I’m not excusing Putin’s aggression, just adding a bit of context.
However, Putin’s move to Crimea missed out on one important detail —- the North Crimean Canal. Ukraine provided up to 85% of the needs of Crimea in fresh water through the North Crimean canal. So, when Crimeans voted to join Russia, the Ukraine govt saw an opportunity for revenge, and cut off water to Crimea. This, in effect, became a problem for Russia, and, therefore, another invasion was inevitable – Putin called it a “special military operation” intended to defend the self-declared independent republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Before the latest war, Putin attempted to resolve the water problem in Crimea by dragging Ukraine to court, among many other measures. In July 2021, Russia filed a lawsuit in the European Court of Human Rights accusing Ukraine of “flagrant violations” over the issue of blocking water to Crimea, but nothing was done about it, and Putin didn’t expect to get any favors from other European leaders.
While a lot of people generally believe Putin is in Ukraine to fend off NATO from making Ukraine its home, I don’t think it’s necessary true. Riddle this with me; if Putin does take the whole of Ukraine and incorporates it into the Russian borders, won’t he end up sharing borders with more NATO members than he does presently? How does that fit in with that objective that has been sold to us?
Actually, when you think about it, this war has led to the expansion of NATO in Sweden and Finland, something Putin may have envisaged before the war, and made people believe that it was something he was concerned with, but when, in reality, his mind was focused on his true objectives above.
Obviously, seeing NATO arming Ukraine has taken a bit of mental dent on Russian forces, and the next few months are going to tell us how far the war will go.
Nevertheless, I can still see Putin pushing on — i suspect that he’s among those that believe that just because you’re worried, it doesn’t mean it won’t go well, or that Just because things have been tough, it doesn’t mean that they won’t get better.
As much as a lot has been said about Ukraine pushing back and planning to reclaim their lost territories, I cannot see it happening without direct involvement of the NATO forces. The offense by Ukrainians looks like something the Russians expected and are withdrawing in some areas that are of less value to them.
People should know that war is business for big nations. There is money to be made in war products. The Capitalists and war profiteers really do not care who dies as long as the profits are huge. That’s something African leaders should learn, too.
For instance, Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni hasn’t shown his ability to start wars that benefit Uganda economically. If I take the DRC as a case in point, the war over there has cost Uganda over US $ 300m, and yet we got very little out of it — it mainly enriched a few powerful individuals, which means that Uganda made a loss in that war.
Americans, on the other hand, know how to make wars that benefit their country economically. That’s why they allegedly bumped off JFK because he didn’t want to escalate the war in Vietnam. They are supplying weapons to Ukraine, but the later will definitely later pay for it. The U.S. transparently budgets averagely over $700 billion per year on military spending and spends many more billions on contingencies like wars, intelligence, and what it calls special operations. Russia spends $48 billion per year — It’s all business to them!
That’s why Ukraine has become a powerful square on the global chessboard, right on Russia’s border, such that US-NATO want it for themselves. They can’t let Russia take all that pie without sharing.
A nuclear war between NATO and Russia is unthinkable as that would mean Armageddon. What needs to happen is for the two big players namely the United States/NATO and Russia to get down to some serious negotiations, sort of like the Berlin Conference of 1884. A demilitarised buffer zone between NATO and Russia is needed. The invasion, wrong as it is, happened, but we need Europe to get back to normal.
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