KAMPALA — Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa has sought to calm growing anxiety over fuel shortages, insisting that Uganda’s national fuel reserves remain stable — even as motorists across the country grapple with dry pumps, long queues, and soaring prices.
In an official statement, Nankabirwa revealed that Uganda currently holds 70.5 million litres of petrol (19 days’ cover), 43.2 million litres of diesel (12 days), and 32 million litres of jet fuel (53 days). She added that confirmed incoming shipments between May and June are expected to significantly boost supply, extending national fuel cover by an additional 49 to 74 days.
But on the ground, the reality tells a more complicated story.
Dry Pumps, Long Queues, Rising Anger
Across major towns and highways, motorists report persistent shortages at leading stations, including those operated by TotalEnergies, with some outlets running completely dry for hours or even days.
In parts of the country, especially upcountry and border districts, petrol prices have surged dramatically — in some cases hitting UGX 10,000 per litre, nearly double the usual retail price.
The mismatch between official assurances and lived experience has fueled public frustration, with many questioning whether the issue is truly about supply — or something deeper within the distribution chain.
Government Explanation: Logistics, Not Shortage
The Ministry of Energy acknowledges the visible disruptions but attributes them to logistical inefficiencies within Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) rather than a national supply crisis.
According to the statement, fuel stock imbalances at retail stations are being caused by delayed deliveries, uneven distribution, and internal operational challenges among OMCs.
Nankabirwa issued a stern warning to fuel dealers, cautioning against “unjustified price hikes” and urging companies to stabilize supply chains to prevent artificial scarcity.
Border Pressure and Regional Demand
Another pressure point is emerging along Uganda’s borders, particularly in areas like Arua, where cross-border demand is driving prices upward.
Fuel traders and transporters from neighboring countries — some facing tighter supply constraints — are reportedly sourcing fuel from Uganda, increasing local demand and straining supplies in those regions.
Global Shockwaves: Middle East Tensions Bite
The situation is further complicated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a region critical to global oil supply. Disruptions in shipping routes and production uncertainties have triggered volatility in international fuel markets, with ripple effects reaching import-dependent countries like Uganda.
As a landlocked nation, Uganda remains highly vulnerable to external supply shocks, with fuel imports routed through regional corridors that can easily be disrupted.
Policy Questions Resurface
The current situation has reignited debate about Uganda’s long-term energy security strategy.
While government officials highlight incoming shipments as a short-term fix, analysts argue that structural vulnerabilities remain unresolved — including reliance on imports, limited national storage capacity, and weak regulatory control over pricing and distribution.
Questions are also being raised about the pace of strategic projects like Uganda’s oil production and refinery development, which have long been presented as solutions to such crises.
Watchdog Insight
What is unfolding is a familiar Ugandan paradox: fuel may be available in bulk — but inaccessible where it matters most.
The government’s data paints a picture of stability. The public experience suggests otherwise.
Until supply chains are tightened, market speculation curbed, and structural reforms implemented, Ugandans may continue to face a cycle where “no shortage” coexists with empty pumps.”
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